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Model Identification and Non-unique Structure

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Author Info
David Hendry () (Nuffield College, Oxford University)
Maozu Lu (Economics Department, Southampton University)
Grayham E. Mizon (Economics Department, Southampton University)

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Abstract

Identification is an essential attribute of any model's parameters, so we consider its three aspects of 'uniqueness', 'correspondence to reality' and 'interpretability'. Observationally-equivalent over-identified models can co-exist, and are mutually encompassing in the population; correctly-identified models need not correspond to the underlying structure; and may be wrongly interpreted. That a given model is over-identified with all over-identifying restrictions valid (even asymptotically) is insufficient to demonstrate that it is a unique representation. Moreover, structre (as invariance under extended information) need not be identifiable. We consider the role of structural breaks to discriminate between such representations.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2002-W10.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0210

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aldrich, John, 1994. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 198-219, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:198-219 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Deistler, Manfred, 1976. "The Identifiability of Linear Econometric Models with Autocorrelated Errors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 26-46, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hatanaka, Michio, 1975. "On the Global Identification of the Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model with Stationary Disturbances," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 545-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hendry, David F, 1995. "Econometrics and Business Cycle Empirics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1622-36, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
  12. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-91, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Bowden, Roger J, 1973. "The Theory of Parametric Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1069-74, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Matteo Richiardi, 2004. "The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics," Computational Economics 0401001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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