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Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function

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  • Eitrheim,O.
  • Jansen,E.S.
  • Nymoen,R.

    (University of Oslo, Department of Economics)

Abstract

After a forecast failure, a respecification is usually necessary to account for the data "ex post", in which case there is a gain in knowledge as a result of the forecast failure. Using Norwegian consumption as an example, we show that the financial deregulation in the mid-1980s led to forecast failure both for consumption functions (CFs) and Euler equations (EEs). We argue in the paper that such forecast failures would appear to be at odds with an underlying DGP belonging to the class of EEs, a result that also explains why progress took the form of a respecified CF where wealth plays a central role. That model is updated and is shown to have constant parameters despite huge changes in the income to wealth ratio over nine years of new data. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 32/2000.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2000_032

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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  1. John Y. Campbell, 1988. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1990. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  4. Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 53, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Hendry, David F, 1995. "Econometrics and Business Cycle Empirics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1622-36, November.
  6. Berg, Lennart & Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. " Housing and Financial Wealth, Financial Deregulation and Consumption--The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(3), pages 421-39, September.
  7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  8. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
  9. Franses, Philip Hans, 1992. "The Norwegian Consumption Function: A Comment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 455-59, August.
  10. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-55, August.
  13. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-61, September.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  16. Berg, Lennart, 1994. "Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 42-53, Summer.
  17. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
  18. Haug, Alfred A, 1996. "Blanchard's Model of Consumption: An Empirical Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 169-77, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Gunnar BARDSEN & Eilev JANSEN & Ragnar NYMOEN, 2002. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 67-68, pages 495-517.
  2. Juan Nicolás Hernández, . "Revisión De Los Determinantes Macroeconómicos Del Consumo Total De Los Hogares Para El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 401, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5(15), pages 1-36.
  4. Elin Halvorsen, 2003. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving. The Norwegian Experience Revisited," Discussion Papers 361, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  5. Erlandsen, Solveig & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Consumption and population age structure," Memorandum 27/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  6. Solveig Erlandsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2008. "Consumption and population age structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 505-520, July.
  7. Falch, Nina Skrove & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Eilev S. Jansen, 2010. "Wealth effects on consumption in financial crises: the case of Norway," Discussion Papers 616, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  9. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  10. Solveig K. Erlandsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Consumption and population age structure," Working Paper 2004/22, Norges Bank.

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