IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpco/0401001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Richiardi

    (LABORatorio Revelli Centre for Employment Studies)

Abstract

In this paper I analyse the main strengths and weaknesses of agent-based computational models. I first describe how agent-based simulations can complement more traditional modelling techniques. Then, I rationalise the main theoretical critiques against the use of simulation, which point to the following problematic areas: (i) interpretation of the simulation dynamics, (ii) estimation of the simulation model, and (iii) generalisation of the results. I show that there exist solutions for all these issues. Along the way, I clarify some confounding differences in terminology between the computer science and the economic literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Richiardi, 2004. "The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics," Computational Economics 0401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpco:0401001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on WinXP; pages: 28; figures: 2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/comp/papers/0401/0401001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerard Weisbuch & Alan Kirman & Dorothea Herreiner, 1995. "Market Organization," Working Papers 95-11-102, Santa Fe Institute.
    2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    3. Steven Stern, 1997. "Simulation-Based Estimation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 2006-2039, December.
    4. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-1057, September.
    5. Nigel Gilbert & Pietro Terna, 2000. "How to build and use agent-based models in social science," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 1(1), pages 57-72, March.
    6. Matyas,Laszlo (ed.), 1999. "Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521669672.
    7. Manuel S. Santos & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2005. "Accuracy of Simulations for Stochastic Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1939-1976, November.
    8. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 29, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    9. Manuel S. Santos & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2005. "Accuracy of Simulations for Stochastic Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1939-1976, November.
    10. Freeman, Richard B., 1998. "War of the models: Which labour market institutions for the 21st century?1," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, March.
    11. Mauro Gallegati & Alan Kirman (ed.), 1999. "Beyond the Representative Agent," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1375.
    12. Leigh Tesfatsion, 2002. "Agent-Based Computational Economics," Computational Economics 0203001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2002.
    13. Robert Axelrod, 1997. "Advancing the Art of Simulation in the Social Sciences," Working Papers 97-05-048, Santa Fe Institute.
    14. Mark Pingle & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2004. "Evolution Of Worker-Employer Networks And Behaviors Under Alternative Non-Employment Benefits: An Agent-Based Computational Study," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Roberto Leombruni & Matteo Richiardi (ed.), Industry And Labor Dynamics The Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach, chapter 8, pages 129-163, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Chris Goldspink, 2002. "Methodological Implications of Complex Systems Approaches to Sociality: Simulation As a Foundation for Knowledge," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(1), pages 1-3.
    16. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    17. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    18. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    19. Matteo Richiardi, 2007. "Agent-based Computational Economics. A Short Introduction," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 69, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    20. Roberto Leombruni, 2002. "The Methodological Status of Agent-Based Simulations," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 19, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    21. Matyas,Laszlo (ed.), 1999. "Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521660136.
    22. Pingle, Mark & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2003. "Evolution of Worker-Employer Networks and Behaviors Under Alternative Non-Employment Benefits: An Agent-Based Computational Approach," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10376, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Mariano,Roberto & Schuermann,Til & Weeks,Melvyn J. (ed.), 2000. "Simulation-based Inference in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521591126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Richiardi, 2004. "A Search Model Of Unemployment And Firm Dynamics," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 203-221.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Paul Windrum & Alessio Moneta, 2006. "Empirical Validation of Agent Based Models: A Critical Survey," LEM Papers Series 2006/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 29, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    4. Juan Manuel Larrosa, 2016. "Agentes computacionales y análisis económico," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(34), pages 87-113, January-J.
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessio Moneta & Paul Windrum, 2007. "A Critical Guide to Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics: Methodologies, Procedures, and Open Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 195-226, October.
    6. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "On the Use of Agent-Based Simulations," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 32, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    7. Schuster, Stephan, 2012. "Applications in Agent-Based Computational Economics," MPRA Paper 47201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gobbi, Alessandro & Grazzini, Jakob, 2019. "A basic New Keynesian DSGE model with dispersed information: An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 101-116.
    9. Paul Windrum & Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessio Moneta, 2007. "Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models: Alternatives and Prospects," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
    10. Babatunde, Kazeem Alasinrin & Begum, Rawshan Ara & Said, Fathin Faizah, 2017. "Application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) to climate change mitigation policy: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 61-71.
    11. Nils ROLOFF & Ulrike LEHR & Wolfram KREWITT & Gerhard FUCHS & Sandra WASSERMANN & Wolfganf WEIMER-JEHLE & Bernd SCHMIDT, 2008. "Success Determinants for Technological Innovations in the Energy Sector - The Case of Photovoltaics," EcoMod2008 23800118, EcoMod.
    12. Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "A Review of Liberalization and Modeling of Electricity Markets," MPRA Paper 65651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Weidlich, Anke & Veit, Daniel, 2008. "A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1728-1759, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    2. Jakob Grazzini & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2013. "Consistent Estimation of Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 130, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 216-229.
    4. Flaminio Squazzoni, 2010. "The impact of agent-based models in the social sciences after 15 years of incursions," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 18(2), pages 197-234.
    5. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Santos, Manuel S., 2004. "Simulation-based estimation of dynamic models with continuous equilibrium solutions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 465-491, June.
    7. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1059-1087.
    8. Santos, Manuel S., 2003. "Simulation-based estimation of dynamic models with continuous equilibrium solutions," UC3M Working papers. Economics we034716, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    9. Jacob Grazzini & Matteo Richiardi & Lisa Sella, 2012. "Indirect estimation of agent-based models.An application to a simple diffusion model," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 118, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    10. Inkmann, Joachim, 2001. "Accounting for Nonresponse Heterogeneity in Panel Data," CoFE Discussion Papers 01/03, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    11. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Magesan, Arvind, 2013. "Euler Equations for the Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural," MPRA Paper 46056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2010. "Estimating Nonlinear DSGE Models by the Simulated Method of Moments," Cahiers de recherche 2010-10, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    13. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    14. Liesenfeld, Roman & Breitung, Jörg, 1998. "Simulation based methods of moments in empirical finance," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 136, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    15. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    16. Giorgio Fagiolo & Paul Windrum & Alessio Moneta, 2006. "Empirical Validation of Agent Based Models: A Critical Survey," LEM Papers Series 2006/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    18. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "On the Use of Agent-Based Simulations," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 32, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    19. Victor Aguirregabiria & Arvind Magesan, 2013. "Euler Equations for the Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Structural Econometric Models, volume 31, pages 3-44, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. Delli Gatti,Domenico & Fagiolo,Giorgio & Gallegati,Mauro & Richiardi,Matteo & Russo,Alberto (ed.), 2018. "Agent-Based Models in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108400046.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based; Simulation; Microsimulation; Computational Economics; Structural Estimation; Economic methodology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpco:0401001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.