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Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994

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  • Massimiliano Marcellino

    (Instituto di Economia Politica and IGIER)

  • Grayham E. Mizon

    (Southampton University)

Abstract

The relationships between wages, prices, productivity, inflation and unemployment in Italy between 1970 and 1994, are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression. There is evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria and in the dynamic evolution of the variables, probably associated with the substantial changes in many sectors of the Italian economy after 1979. Alternative ways to model structural change in the Italian labour market are considered, including choice of lag length, the use of dummy variables, modelling conditionally on related macroeconomic variables, and modelling separate regimes. In adopting a split sample approach the results favour an hysteresis interpretation of unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 0911.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:0911

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  2. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
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  14. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
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  18. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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