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Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland, and the UK

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Massimiliano Marcellino
Grayham E. Mizon

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Abstract

The relationship between wages, prices, productivity, inflation, and unemployment in Italy, Poland, and the UK between the 1960’s and the early 1990’s is modelled as a cointegrated vector autoregression subject to regime shifts. For each of these economies there is clear evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria of this sector of the economy. Hypotheses concerning the similarity of the transition from a rigid to a flexible labour market are tested.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 145.

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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:145

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  1. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1113, Society for Computational Economics.
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  2. Welfe, Aleksander, 1996. " The Price-Wage Inflationary Spiral in Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50.
  3. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Layard, R. & Nickell, S., . "Layard-Nickell," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics layardnickell, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Golinelli, Roberto & Orsi, Renzo, 1994. " Price-Wage Dynamics in a Transition Economy: The Case of Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 293-313.
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  6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christopher L. Erikson & Andrea Ichino, 1994. "Wage Differentials in Italy: Market Forces, Institutions, and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
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  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ian Babetskii, 2007. "Aggregate Wage Flexibility in Selected New EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Jesus Otero & Manuel Ramirez, 2002. "On the determinants of the inflation rate in Colombia: a disequilibrium market approach," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003296, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ana María Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2003. "On the dynamics of unemployment in a developing economy: Colombia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 895-898, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen & C. Trenkler, . "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift at Unknown Time," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-63, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  5. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rita Duarte & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2009. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1067, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Working Papers 185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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