IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dug/journl/y2016i1p127-148.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Switch to Near-Rational Wage-Price Setting Behaviour: The Case of United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Adriatik Hoxha

    (University of Prishtina)

Abstract

The overall consensus of empirical evidence on the wage and price relationship reveals that causal relationships are difficult to identify. Moreover, elements other than wages, prices and productivity have significant impact in determining the wage-price setting equilibrium. Application of partial correlation and VECM analysis in the wage-price causal relationship in UK over the period 2000:Q1–2014:Q4 implies that there is strong evidence of structural change in the relationship. The VECM analysis implies statistically robust long-run cointegration relationship and negates short-run causality in any direction. Remarkably, there has not been a switch from near-rational to fully rational behavior, but the opposite. Additionally, the estimated values of cointegration coefficients provide strong evidence in favor of hypothesis that the assumption of near-rational behavior in the wage-price relationship in UK is valid. Specifically, the wage setters have under-adjusted for inflation as probably in their view the costs of such behavior were low. Furthermore, it seems that wage and price setters have unconditionally accepted the rigor of monetary policy authorities and did not pursue a policy which raises inflation rate above the target rate of monetary authorities. Ultimately, this near-rational behavior can be accredited to the high degree of labor market flexibility in UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Switch to Near-Rational Wage-Price Setting Behaviour: The Case of United Kingdom," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(35), pages 127-148, may.
    • Handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2016:i:1:p:127-148
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/euroeconomica/article/view/3227/3258
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eswar S. Prasad, 2004. "The Unbearable Stability of the German Wage Structure: Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 354-385.
    2. Werner Smolny, 2000. "Sources of productivity growth: an empirical analysis with German sectoral data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 305-314.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Dabusinskas, Aurelijus & Hoeberichts, Marco & Izquierdo, Mario & Kwapil, Claudia & Montornès, Jeremi & Radowski, Daniel, 2012. "Price, wage and employment response to shocks: evidence from the WDN survey," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 783-791.
    5. Kromphardt, Jürgen & Logeay, Camille, 2007. "Changes in the Balance of Power Between the Wage and Price Setters and the Central Bank: Consequences for the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU," Kiel Working Papers 1354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Yash P. Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    7. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    8. Chen, Pu & Chihying, Hsiao, 2007. "Learning Causal Relations in Multivariate Time Series Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-43.
    9. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "What drives productivity growth?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 37-59.
    10. Robert J. Gordon, 1972. "Wage-Price Controls and the Shifting Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(2), pages 385-421.
    11. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    12. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-413, August.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
    14. Chih-Ping Chang & Kenneth M. Emery, 1996. "Do wages help predict inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 2-9.
    15. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
    16. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    17. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    18. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    19. Ulrich Doraszelski & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2013. "R&D and Productivity: Estimating Endogenous Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1338-1383.
    20. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-494, Sept.-Oct.
    21. Nourzad, Farrokh, 2010. "Assessing the Predictive Power of Labor-Market Indicators of Inflation," Working Papers and Research 2010-10, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdul Rahman, 2020. "Long run Association of Stock Prices and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 124-131.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Wage-Price Setting Behavior: Comparing The Evidence from EU28 and EMU," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 61-102, June.
    2. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. Elke Hahn, 2021. "How are wage developments passed through to prices in the euro area? Evidence from a BVAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(22), pages 2467-2485, May.
    5. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    6. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Reimherr, Matthew L., 2009. "Delay times of sequential procedures for multiple time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 174-190, April.
    7. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    8. Bobeica, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States," Working Paper Series 2583, European Central Bank.
    9. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    10. Elena Bobeica & Matteo Ciccarelli & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2019. "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 848, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Attilio Zanetti, 2007. "Do Wages Lead Inflation? Swiss Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(I), pages 67-92, March.
    13. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2015. "Testing Capital Accumulation-Driven Growth Models in a Multiple-Regime Framework: Evidence from South Africa," CEF.UP Working Papers 1501, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    14. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008. "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583.
    15. Bakhodir A Ergashev, 2004. "Sequential Detection of US Business Cycle Turning Points: Performances of Shiryayev-Roberts, CUSUM and EWMA Procedures," Econometrics 0402001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Mar 2004.
    16. Aaron Steelman & John A. Weinberg, 2015. "A \\"New Normal\\"? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, pages 4-27.
    17. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    18. Irina Zabelina & Ekaterina Klevakina, 2016. "Structural Changes in the Economy of Cross-Border Regions of Russia and China," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1460-1467.
    19. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2017. "Modelling an Emergent Economy and Parameter Instability Problem," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-28, June.
    20. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2016:i:1:p:127-148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Nuta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedanro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.