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Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian

Abstract

The last version of the Romanian macromodel (Dobrescu 2005b) incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (Dobrescu 1991-1994) or operational (Dobrescu 1996-2005a). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and informational improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of economy, according to the input-output techniques. Output and absorption are divided into: a) agriculture, sylviculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing; b) mining and energy; c) manufacturing industry; d) construction; e) transport, post and communications; f) trade and services. These categories can be easily translated into the classical three-sectors classification: primary (a+b), secondary (c+d), and tertiary (e+f). Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were modelled - as much as possible - by the standard relationships. Besides, unlike the previous versions (that used statistical series beginning with 1980) the present one is based exclusively on information regarding the period 1989-2004. Since the input-output tables are defined yearly, the model contains only annual indicators. They are expressed in denominated local currency (RON). The export, import, and exchange rate series were transformed in Euro. When there were several informational sources for the same indicator, the data extracted or derived from national accounts have been adopted. The statistical series are relatively short and often fractured (because of the transforming processes of transition). Although, it is known that ADF test of stationarity does not offer reliable results in the case of limited number of observations, generally the series satisfying it were used. The simplest regression methods were also preferred. The structural breaks in evolution of some series have been dealt by the inclusion of dummies. Obviously, all these circumstances weaken the stability of econometric coefficients that must be continuously updated. The first two chapters of the paper characterise the main macroeconomic behavioural relationships and input-output coefficients. The third one discusses a possible scenario for the Romanian economy during 2005-2010. A set of simulations is presented in the final part of the paper; these reveal some operational features of the macromodel.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35748.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35748

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Keywords: model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-89, October.
  2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2012. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," MPRA Paper 48567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Prospects for the Evolution of the Economic Sectors’ Behavior," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 120-142.
  4. Daianu, Daniel & Lungu, Laurian, 2008. "Why Is This Financial Crisis Occurring? How To Respond To It?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 59-87, December.
  5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 132601, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  6. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Summer Forecast 2011, June Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 171-174, March.
  7. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "DOBRESCU” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 118-123, June.
  8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
  9. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - The second actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(3), pages 124-129, September.

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