Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dobrescu, Emilian

Abstract

The last version of the Romanian macromodel (Dobrescu 2005b) incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (Dobrescu 1991-1994) or operational (Dobrescu 1996-2005a). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and informational improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of economy, according to the input-output techniques. Output and absorption are divided into: a) agriculture, sylviculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing; b) mining and energy; c) manufacturing industry; d) construction; e) transport, post and communications; f) trade and services. These categories can be easily translated into the classical three-sectors classification: primary (a+b), secondary (c+d), and tertiary (e+f). Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were modelled - as much as possible - by the standard relationships. Besides, unlike the previous versions (that used statistical series beginning with 1980) the present one is based exclusively on information regarding the period 1989-2004. Since the input-output tables are defined yearly, the model contains only annual indicators. They are expressed in denominated local currency (RON). The export, import, and exchange rate series were transformed in Euro. When there were several informational sources for the same indicator, the data extracted or derived from national accounts have been adopted. The statistical series are relatively short and often fractured (because of the transforming processes of transition). Although, it is known that ADF test of stationarity does not offer reliable results in the case of limited number of observations, generally the series satisfying it were used. The simplest regression methods were also preferred. The structural breaks in evolution of some series have been dealt by the inclusion of dummies. Obviously, all these circumstances weaken the stability of econometric coefficients that must be continuously updated. The first two chapters of the paper characterise the main macroeconomic behavioural relationships and input-output coefficients. The third one discusses a possible scenario for the Romanian economy during 2005-2010. A set of simulations is presented in the final part of the paper; these reveal some operational features of the macromodel.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35748/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35748.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35748

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
  2. Zvi Griliches, 1996. "Education, Human Capital, and Growth: A Personal Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Presence of Structural Maladjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Neck, Reinhard & Matulka, Josef, 1994. "Stochastic optimum control of macroeconometric models using the algorithm OPTCON," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 384-405, March.
  5. Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989. "The Wage Curve," Papers, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics 340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  6. Holden, Steinar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2002. " Measuring Structural Unemployment: NAWRU Estimates in the Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 87-104.
  7. Campbell, R B, 1979. "Optimal Choice of a Proximate Monetary Target in an Open Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(148), pages 47-57, March.
  8. Angela Black & Felix R. FitzRoy, 2000. "Earnings Curves and Wage Curves," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews 200004, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
  9. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
  10. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  11. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Frederik P. Schlingemann & Rene M. Stulz & Ralph A. Walkling, 2000. "Asset Liquidity and Segment Divestitures," NBER Working Papers 7873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Brixen, Peter & Tarp, Finn, 1996. "South Africa: Macroeconomic perspectives for the medium term," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 989-1001, June.
  14. Evans, George W, 1989. "Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 213-37, July-Sept.
  15. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  16. Belot, Michele & van Ours, Jan C., 2001. "Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 403-418, December.
  17. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2002. "Macromodel Estimation for the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Programme"," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 5-38, December.
  18. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Dave Turner & Pete Richardson & Sylvie Rauffet, 1996. "Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 167, OECD Publishing.
  20. Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute ECO2002/09, European University Institute.
  21. Steinar Holden, 1997. "The Unemployment Problem: A Norwegian Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 172, OECD Publishing.
  22. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 1998. "What Hides Behind an Umemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 6636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Karl Whelan, 1997. "Wage curve vs. Phillips curve: are there macroeconomic implications?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1997-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  25. William D. Nordhaus, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the New Economy," NBER Working Papers 8096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1991. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on integrated time series," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  27. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  28. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Daina McDonald & Peter B. Dixon, 1988. "Forecasts for the Australian Economy: 1988-89 and 1989-90," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 21(4), pages 3-18.
  30. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
  31. Artus, Patrick & Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 1993. "A disequilibrium econometric model of the French economy with two sectors and endogenous prices and investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-10, January.
  32. Werner Roeger & Bernhard Herz, 2012. "Traditional versus New Keynesian Phillips Curves: Evidence from Output Effects," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 87-109, June.
  33. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2000. "Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Theory and a Keynesian Approach," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp068, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  34. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. repec:uba:hadfwe:trad_2004-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  37. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
  38. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in Transitional Economies: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081103, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  39. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  41. Daina McDonald & Peter B. Dixon, 1989. "The Australian Economy in 1988-89 and 1989-90," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(1), pages 3-23.
  42. KÃ¥re Johansen, 2002. "Regional Wage Curves Empirical Evidence from Norway," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology 0302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  43. Ghizdeanu, Ion & Neagu, Marian, 2003. "Estimarea produsului intern brut potential," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar, Institute for Economic Forecasting 030104, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  44. Erich Gundlach, 2003. "Growth Effects of EU Membership: The Case of East Germany," Empirica, Springer, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 237-270, September.
  45. Shams, M., 1989. "The impact of oil revenues on the OPEC economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 242-242, October.
  46. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  48. Philip D. Adams & Peter B. Dixon, 1989. "Forecasts for the Australian Economy in 1989-90 and 1990-91," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(4), pages 5-31.
  49. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Hi-tech Innovation and Productivity Growth: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?," NBER Working Papers 9437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-89, October.
  2. Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Prospects for the Evolution of the Economic Sectors’ Behavior," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 120-142.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
  4. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - The second actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(3), pages 124-129, September.
  5. Daianu, Daniel & Lungu, Laurian, 2008. "Why Is This Financial Crisis Occurring? How To Respond To It?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 59-87, December.
  6. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "DOBRESCU” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 118-123, June.
  7. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Summer Forecast 2011, June Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 171-174, March.
  8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2012. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," MPRA Paper 48567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar, Institute for Economic Forecasting 132601, Institute for Economic Forecasting.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.