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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Economic Commentary

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Postal: 1455 East 6th St., Cleveland OH 44114
Phone: 216.579.2000
Web page: http://www.clevelandfed.org/
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2013, Issue Jan 31

• The concentration of poverty within metropolitan areas
  by Dionissi Aliprantis & Kyle Fee & Nelson Oliver

2013, Issue Feb 7

• Are we like Sweden? recovery in the labor market
  by Ozgur Emre Ergungor
• Monetary policy: from there to here to where?
  by Mark S Sniderman

2013, Issue Apr 11

• Forecasting inflation? Target the middle
  by Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu & Saeed Zaman

2012, Issue Sept. 25

• Labor's declining share of income and rising inequality
  by Margaret Jacobson & Filippo Occhino

2012, Issue Oct 12

• Gaps versus growth rates in the Taylor Rule
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst
• Policy rules in macroeconomic forecasting models
  by Todd E. Clark
• Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?
  by Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman

2012, Issue Oct 11

• Alternatives to Libor in consumer mortgages
  by Mark E. Schweitzer & Guhan Venkatu

2012, Issue Nov 13

• Time-consistent rules in monetary and fiscal policy
  by Daniel Carroll

2012, Issue Nov 1

• Capital requirements for financial firms
  by Joseph G. Haubrich & James B. Thomson

2012, Issue May 3

• Exchange-traded funds
  by O. Emre Ergungor

2012, Issue May 15

• 10 things to know about the shape of Ohio’s skilled workforce
  by Timothy Dunne & Guhan Venkatu

2012, Issue Mar 21

• The Cleveland financial stress index
  by Timothy Bianco & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong

2012, Issue Mar 15

• Overvaluing residential properties and the growing glut of REO
  by Thomas J. Fitzpatrick IV & Stephan Whitaker

2012, Issue June 7

• Technology shocks and unemployment in the last recession
  by Pedro S. Amaral
• An unstable Okun’s Law, not the best rule of thumb
  by Brent Meyer & Murat Tasci

2012, Issue July 2

• Communication, credibility, and price stability: lessons learned from Japan
  by Owen F. Humpage

2012, Issue Feb 23

• Do rising rents complicate inflation assessment?
  by Brent Meyer

2012, Issue Feb 2

• The history and rationale for a separate bank resolution process
  by Thomas J. Fitzpatrick IV & Moira Kearney-Marks & James B. Thomson

2012, Issue Aug 8

• Americans cut their debt
  by Yuliya Demyanyk & Matthew Koepke
• The college wage premium
  by Jonathan James

2012, Issue Aug 23

• Household formation and the great recession
  by Timothy Dunne

2011, Issue Sept 7

• Unemployment, labor costs, and recessions: implications for the inflation outlook
  by Kyle Fee & Mark E. Schweitzer

2011, Issue Sept 27

• This time may not be that different: labor markets, the Great Recession and the (not so great) recovery
  by Murat Tasci

2011, Issue Oct 5

• The future of inflation
  by Joseph G. Haubrich
• Macroeconomic models, forecasting, and policymaking
  by Andrea Pescatori & Saeed Zaman

2011, Issue Oct 26

• How well does bankruptcy work when large financial frms fail? Some lessons from Lehman Brothers
  by Thomas J. Fitzpatrick IV & James B. Thomson

2011, Issue Oct 18

• Reducing the federal deficit: approaches in some other countries
  by Daniel Carroll & John Lindner
• The growing difference in college attainment between women and men
  by Dionissi Aliprantis & Timothy Dunne & Kyle Fee

2011, Issue Nov 29

• Economic policy uncertainty and small business expansion
  by Mark E. Schweitzer & Scott Shane

2011, Issue May 24

• Do commodity prices signal inflation?
  by Owen F. Humpage

2011, Issue May 17

• Demographic differences in inflation expectations: what do they really mean?
  by Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu

2011, Issue Mar 24

• Household balance sheets and the recovery
  by Timothy Bianco & Filippo Occhino
• The Great Recession’s effect on entrepreneurship
  by Scott Shane

2011, Issue June 7

• Raising the college degree share: How nongraduates figure into it
  by Stephan Whitaker

2011, Issue June 29

• Labor market rigidity, unemployment, and the Great Recession
  by Murat Tasci & Mary Zenker

2011, Issue June 13

• Shocks and the economic outlook
  by Kenneth R. Beauchemin

2011, Issue July 26

• Foreclosure-related vacancy rates
  by Stephan Whitaker

2011, Issue Jan 5

• An end to too big to let fail? The Dodd-Frank Act's orderly liquidation authority
  by Thomas J. Fitzpatrick & James B. Thomson

2011, Issue Jan 31

• High unemployment after the recession: mostly cyclical, but adjusting slowly
  by Murat Tasci

2011, Issue Feb 23

• Homeowner subsidies
  by O. Emre Ergungor

2011, Issue Dec 6

• Municipal finance in the face of falling property values
  by Thomas J. Fitzpatrick IV & Mary Zenker

2011, Issue Dec 21

• Concentrated poverty
  by Dionissi Aliprantis & Mary Zenker

2011, Issue Aug 4

• Do bank branches matter anymore?
  by O. Emre Ergungor & Stephanie Moulton

2011, Issue Aug 31

• Resolving large, complex financial firms
  by Thomas J. Fitzpatrick IV & Mark B. Greenlee & James B. Thomson
• Credit flows to businesses during the Great Recession
  by Pedro Amaral

2011, Issue Aug 24

• Food and energy price shocks: what other prices are affected?
  by Todd E. Clark & Saeed Zaman

2011, Issue Apr 28

• Buy a home or rent? A better way to choose
  by Ozgur Emre Ergungor & Saeed Zaman

2010, Issue Sep 14

• Compensation and risk incentives in banking and finance
  by Jian Cai & Kent Cherny & Todd Milbourn

2010, Issue Sep 09

• Not your father’s recovery?
  by Kenneth Beauchemin

2010, Issue Sep 08

• Unemployment after the recession: a new natural rate?
  by Murat Tasci & Saeed Zaman

2010, Issue Oct 27

• The impact of foreclosures on the housing market
  by Daniel Hartley

2010, Issue Oct 19

• Out of the shadows: projected levels for future REO inventory
  by Guhan Venkatu

2010, Issue Nov 16

• Your credit score is a ranking, not a score
  by Yuliya Demyanyk

2010, Issue May 24

• The foreign savings glut: inordinate savers or thriving traders?
  by Owen F. Humpage

2010, Issue May 19

• Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so
  by Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer

2010, Issue Mar 22

• Are jobless recoveries the new norm?
  by Murat Tasci

2010, Issue Jun 28

• Inflation: noise, risk, and expectations
  by Joseph G. Haubrich & Timothy Bianco

2010, Issue Jun 10

• Monetary policy in a world with interest on reserves
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2010, Issue Jul 7

• Reforming the over-the-counter derivatives market: what’s to be gained?
  by Kent Cherny & Ben R. Craig

2010, Issue Jul 23

• W(h)ither the Fed’s balance sheet?
  by John B. Carlson & Joseph G. Haubrich & John Lindner

2010, Issue Jul 20

• Is debt overhang causing firms to underinvest?
  by Filippo Occhino

2010, Issue Dec 6

• Simple ways to forecast inflation: what works best?
  by Brent Meyer & Mehmet Pasaogullari

2010, Issue Dec 20

• The effect of falling home prices on small business borrowing
  by Mark E. Schweitzer & Scott Shane

2010, Issue Aug 3

• Stripdowns and bankruptcy: lessons from agricultural bankruptcy reform
  by Thomas J. Fitzpatrick & James B. Thomson

2010, Issue Aug 24

• Is U.S. federal debt too large?
  by Pedro S. Amaral

2009, Issue Sep

• Why didn’t Canada’s housing market go bust?
  by James MacGee

2009, Issue Oct

• Conducting monetary policy when interest rates are near zero
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Andrea Pescatori

2009, Issue May

• Ten myths about subprime mortgages
  by Yuliya Demyanyk

2009, Issue Mar

• Replacing the dollar with special drawing rights--will it work this time?
  by Owen F. Humpage

2009, Issue Jun

• The check is dead! Long live the check! A Check 21 update
  by Paul W. Bauer & Geoffrey R. Gerdes

2009, Issue Jul

• Credit default swaps and their market function
  by Kent Cherny & Ben R. Craig

2009, Issue Jan

• Adjustable-rate mortgages and the Libor surprise
  by Mark E Schweitzer & Guhan Venkatu

2009, Issue Feb

• Effective practices in crisis resolution and the case of Sweden
  by Kent Cherny & Ozgur Emre Ergungor

2009, Issue Aug

• A new approach to gauging inflation expectations
  by Joseph G. Haubrich

2009, Issue Apr

• Foreclosure metrics
  by Timothy Dunne & Guhan Venkatu

2008, Issue May

• Trouble ahead for student loans?
  by O. Emre Ergungor & Ian Hathaway

2008, Issue Mar

• The great moderation: good luck, good policy, or less oil dependence?
  by Andrea Pescatori

2008, Issue Jun

• Rising relative prices or inflation: why knowing the difference matters
  by Owen F. Humpage

2008, Issue Jul

• Covered bonds: a new way to fund residential mortgages
  by O. Emre Ergungor

2008, Issue Jan

• Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: trend inflation isn't constant
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2008, Issue Feb

• Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: the Great Moderation and monetary policy
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2008, Issue Aug

• A new role for the Exchange Stabilization Fund
  by Owen F. Humpage

2008, Issue Apr

• Stamp scrip: money people paid to use
  by Bruce Champ

2007, Issue Sep 15

• Regional variation in job creation and destruction
  by Paul W. Bauer & Yoonsoo Lee

2007, Issue Sep 1

• Prepayment penalties on subprime mortgages
  by O. Emre Ergungor

2007, Issue Oct 15

• Regional productivity growth and plant-level dynamics
  by Yoonsoo Lee

2007, Issue Oct 1

• Are consumers cashing out?
  by Paul W. Bauer & Daniel Littman

2007, Issue Nov

• Coordination failures in the labor market
  by Guillaume Rocheteau & Murat Tasci

2007, Issue May 15

• Global risks to U.S. monetary policy
  by Owen F. Humpage

2007, Issue May 1

• The minimum wage and the labor market
  by Guillaume Rocheteau & Murat Tasci

2007, Issue Mar 15

• Mirror, mirror, who’s the best forecaster of them all?
  by Michael F. Bryan & Linsey Molloy

2007, Issue Mar 1

• Credit spreads and subordinated debt
  by Joseph G. Haubrich & James B. Thomson

2007, Issue Jun

• Price stability: issues and challenges
  by Sandra Pianalto

2007, Issue Jul

• What’s really going on in housing markets?
  by Morris A. Davis & François Ortalo-Magné & Peter Rupert

2007, Issue Jan 15

• Home price derivatives
  by O. Emre Ergungor

2007, Issue Jan 1

• Private money in our past, present, and future
  by Bruce Champ

2007, Issue Feb 15

• A closer look at Cleveland's latest poverty ranking
  by Mark Schweitzer & Brian Rudick

2007, Issue Feb 1

• Human capital and the challenge of persistent poverty in Appalachia
  by James P. Ziliak

2007, Issue Dec

• A brief history of central banks
  by Michael D. Bordo

2007, Issue Aug 15

• Peak oil
  by Joseph G. Haubrich & Brent Meyer

2007, Issue Aug 1

• The growth of cities in the Fourth District
  by Tim Dunne

2007, Issue Apr 15

• How much U.S. technological innovation begins in universities?
  by Jinyoung Kim & Gerald Marschke

2007, Issue Apr 1

• U.S. ethnic scientists and entrepreneurs
  by William R. Kerr

2006, Issue Sep 15

• Inflation, inflation expectations, and monetary policy
  by Sandra Pianalto

2006, Issue Sep 1

• Central bank independence: the key to price stability?
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2006, Issue Oct 15

• Understanding unemployment
  by Guillaume Rocheteau

2006, Issue Oct 1

• Industrial loan companies
  by O. Emre Ergungor & James B. Thomson

2006, Issue Nov

• The anatomy of an oil price shock
  by Eric O’N. Fisher & Kathryn G. Marshall

2006, Issue May 15

• Inflation, banking, and economic growth
  by John H. Boyd & Bruce Champ

2006, Issue May 1

• Monetary policy in an interdependent world
  by Sandra Pianalto

2006, Issue Mar 15

• Choice, charters, and public school competition
  by Eric A. Hanushek

2006, Issue Mar 1

• Vouchers and the Cleveland Scholarship Program: little progress so far
  by Clive R. Belfield

2006, Issue Jun

• FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions
  by John B. Carlson & Ben Craig & Patrick Higgins & William R. Melick

2006, Issue Jul

• Economic conditions and monetary policy
  by Sandra Pianalto

2006, Issue Jan 15

• Optimal deposit contracts: do-it-yourself bank-run prevention for banks
  by Ed Nosal

2006, Issue Jan 1

• Are we engineering ourselves out of manufacturing jobs?
  by Mark Schweitzer & Saeed Zaman

2006, Issue Feb 15

• Economic forecasts and monetary policy
  by Sandra Pianalto

2006, Issue Feb 1

• Cleveland (on the) rocks
  by Guhan Venkatu

2006, Issue Dec

• Milton Friedman, teacher, 1912-2006
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2006, Issue Aug 15

• Paths to prosperity: knowledge is key for Fourth District states
  by Paul W. Bauer & Mark E. Schweitzer

2006, Issue Aug 1

• Central bank credibility
  by Paul Gomme

2006, Issue Apr 15

• Does the yield curve signal recession?
  by Joseph G. Haubrich

2006, Issue Apr 1

• Employment growth, job creation, and job destruction in Ohio
  by Yoonsoo Lee & Brian Rudick

2005, Issue Sep 15

• Umbrella supervision
  by Joseph G. Haubrich & James B. Thomson

2005, Issue Sep 1

• Nondeliverable forwards: can we tell where the renminbi is headed?
  by Patrick Higgins & Owen F. Humpage

2005, Issue Oct 15

• The role of relationships in small-business lending
  by Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson, III & James B. Thomson

2005, Issue Oct 1

• The tale of Gresham's law
  by Richard Dutu & Ed Nosal & Guillaume Rocheteau

2005, Issue Nov

• Considerable period of time: the case of signaling future policy
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2005, Issue May 15

• Why policymakers might care about stock market bubbles
  by Paul Gomme

2005, Issue May 1

• The power of price stability
  by Sandra Pianalto

2005, Issue Mar 15

• Too much risk?
  by Joseph G. Haubrich & Ben Craig

2005, Issue Mar 1

• Rethinking the welfare cost of inflation
  by Ben Craig & Guillaume Rocheteau

2005, Issue Jun

• Labor productivity growth across states
  by Paul Bauer & Yoonsoo Lee

2005, Issue Jul

• Oil prices, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2005, Issue Jan 15

• This is Bangalore calling: hang up or speed dial? what technology-enabled international trade in services means for the U.S. economy and workforce
  by Catherine L. Mann

2005, Issue Jan 1

• Losing its minds? evaluating “brain drain” in Ohio
  by Shadya Yazback

2005, Issue Feb 15

• Should Ohio invest in universal preschooling?
  by Clive R. Belfield

2005, Issue Feb 1

• A perspective on monetary policy
  by Sandra Pianalto

2005, Issue Dec

• Have international developments lowered the neutral rate?
  by Owen F. Humpage

2005, Issue Aug 15

• The Chinese renminbi: what’s real, what’s not
  by Patrick Higgins & Owen F. Humpage

2005, Issue Aug 1

• Accounting for the jobless recoveries
  by Paul Gomme

2005, Issue Apr 15

• Expectations, communications, and monetary policy
  by Sandra Pianalto

2005, Issue Apr 1

• The growing significance of purchasing power parity
  by Ben Craig

2004, Issue Sep 15

• Are SBA loan guarantees desirable?
  by Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson, III & James B. Thomson

2004, Issue Sep 1

• When is checkout time?
  by Paul W. Bauer

2004, Issue Oct 15

• The fate of one-dollar coins in the U.S
  by Sébastien Lotz & Guillaume Rocheteau

2004, Issue Oct 1

• A hitchhiker’s guide to the U.S. current account problem
  by Owen F. Humpage

2004, Issue Nov

• Expected inflation and TIPS
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2004, Issue May 15

• Employment surveys are telling the same (sad) story
  by Mark Schweitzer & Guhan Venkatu

2004, Issue May 1

• A perspective on monetary policy
  by Sandra Pianalto

2004, Issue Mar 15

• A national voice, a regional view
  by Sandra Pianalto

2004, Issue Mar 1

• Mutual funds, fee transparency, and competition
  by John B. Carlson & Eduard A. Pelz & Erkin Y. Sahinoz

2004, Issue Jun

• Interest rates, yield curves, and the monetary regime
  by Joseph G. Haubrich

2004, Issue Jul

• Why are we losing manufacturing jobs?
  by Eric O' N. Fisher

2004, Issue Jan 15

• The trime
  by Michael F. Bryan

2004, Issue Jan 1

• Arbitrage: the key to pricing options
  by Ed Nosal & Tan Wang

2004, Issue Feb 15

• On the rotation of the earth, drunken sailors, and exchange rate policy
  by Owen F. Humpage

2004, Issue Feb 1

• Island money
  by Michael F. Bryan

2004, Issue Dec

• Oil prices: backward to the future?
  by Joseph G. Haubrich & Patrick Higgins & Janet Miller

2004, Issue Aug 15

• Per capita income growth and disparity in the United States, 1929–2003
  by Paul Gomme & Peter Rupert

2004, Issue Aug 1

• When is a rate hike not tighter policy?
  by David E. Altig

2004, Issue Apr 15

• Wage and employer changes over the life cycle
  by Peter Rupert

2004, Issue Apr 1

• Dividends
  by O. Emre Ergungor

2003, Issue Sep 15

• What is the right inflation rate?
  by David E. Altig

2003, Issue Sep 1

• An option for anticipating Fed action
  by John B. Carlson & William R. Melick & Erkin Y. Sahinoz

2003, Issue Oct 15

• Bubble, toil, and trouble
  by Ben Craig

2003, Issue Oct 1

• Foreign exchange and the liquidity trap
  by Owen F. Humpage & William R. Melick

2003, Issue Nov

• Expensing stock options
  by Joseph G. Haubrich

2003, Issue May 15

• The new discount window
  by Ed Stevens

2003, Issue May 1

• Information and prices
  by O. Emre Ergungor & Joseph G. Haubrich

2003, Issue Mar 15

• Why are TIIS yields so high? The case of the missing inflation-risk premium
  by Ben Craig

2003, Issue Mar 1

• Another jobless recovery?
  by Mark Schweitzer

2003, Issue Jun

• The evolving role of the Federal Home Loan Banks in mortgage markets
  by Daniel K. Maloney & James B. Thomson

2003, Issue Jul

• The Taylor rule: a guidepost for monetary policy?
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2003, Issue Jan 15

• The effects of school quality on juvenile crime
  by Amy Pandjiris

2003, Issue Jan 1

• Not as easy as it looks: regulating effective corporate governance
  by Jerry L. Jordan

2003, Issue Feb 15

• Open and operating: providing liquidity to avoid a crisis
  by Bruce Champ

2003, Issue Feb 1

• Measures of corporate earnings: what number is best?
  by John B. Carlson & Erkin Sahinoz

2003, Issue Dec

• The nature of economic change
  by Sandra Pianalto

2003, Issue Aug 15

• Securitization
  by O. Emre Ergungor

2003, Issue Aug 1

• The economic rise of China: threat or opportunity?
  by Nicholas R. Lardy

2003, Issue Apr 15

• Iowa electronic markets
  by Paul Gomme

2003, Issue Apr 1

• Do energy price spikes cause inflation?
  by Owen F. Humpage & Eduard Pelz

2002, Issue Sep 15

• What you should know about identity theft
  by Paul W. Bauer

2002, Issue Sep 1

• Free trade and tariffs—an uneasy mix
  by Paul Gomme

2002, Issue Oct 15

• Dollarization: what's in it for US?
  by David E. Altig

2002, Issue Oct 1

• Options and the future: what do markets think?
  by Ben Craig

2002, Issue Nov

• Three myths about central banks
  by Geoffrey P. Miller

2002, Issue May 15

• Is it more expensive, or does it just cost more money?
  by Michael F. Bryan

2002, Issue May 1

• Why is stable money such a big deal?
  by David E. Altig

2002, Issue Mar 15

• Consumer financial privacy and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
  by Paul W. Bauer

2002, Issue Mar 1

• Electronic money and the future of central banks
  by Ed Stevens

2002, Issue Jun

• Fear and loathing of central banks in America
  by Michael F. Bryan & Bruce Champ

2002, Issue Jul

• Commercial banks’ borrowing from the Federal Home Loan Bank
  by James B. Thomson

2002, Issue Jan 15

• Infrastructure and the wealth of nations
  by Ed Nosal & Peter Rupert

2002, Issue Jan 1

• Why haven't long-term interest rates fallen?
  by David E. Altig & Ed Nosal

2002, Issue Feb 15

• Monetary policy rules and stability: inflation targeting versus price-level targeting
  by Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst

2002, Issue Feb 1

• Legal systems and bank development
  by O. Emre Ergungor

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