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The 1918 Flu and COVID-19 Pandemics: Different Patients, Different Economy

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  • Ross Cohen-Kristiansen
  • Roberto Pinheiro

Abstract

Many observers seeking historical precedent for COVID-19 draw on the 1918 influenza pandemic. In this Commentary, we highlight the differences between the 1918 flu and COVID-19 pandemics in terms of the most significantly affected populations. We also show key differences in the US economy in the late 1910s and now. Not only did the 1918 influenza virus primarily affect significantly younger cohorts, but the US economy’s industry and geographic distributions were notably different at the time compared to today’s. Consequently, caution is needed when using the 1918 influenza pandemic as a guideline for implementing and evaluating policy responses to COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Cohen-Kristiansen & Roberto Pinheiro, 2020. "The 1918 Flu and COVID-19 Pandemics: Different Patients, Different Economy," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(13), pages 1-5, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:88203
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Basco, Sergi & Domènech, Jordi & Rosés, Joan R., 2021. "The redistributive effects of pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish flu," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Thomas A. Garrett, 2009. "War And Pestilence As Labor Market Shocks: U.S. Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914–1919," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 711-725, October.
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7m2qa73prn89eogubjm0rc58le is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guillaume Chapelle, 2022. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 43-81.
    3. Guillaume Chapelle, 2020. "The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities," Working Papers hal-03389177, HAL.

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