War and pestilence as labor market shocks: manufacturing wage growth 1914-1919

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War and pestilence as labor market shocks: manufacturing wage growth 1914-1919

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Thomas A. Garrett

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Thomas Garrett

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic and World War I on real wage growth in the manufacturing sectors of U.S. states from 1914 to 1919. The general hypothesis is that both events caused a significant decrease in the supply of manufacturing labor, thereby initially increasing the marginal product of labor and thus wages. The empirical results reveal that influenza mortalities led to a greater overall increase in real manufacturing wage growth, but the marginal effect on wage growth from an additional World War I combat mortality was greater than that from the influenza pandemic.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-018.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-018

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-04-29 (All new papers)
NEP-HIS-2006-04-29 (Business, Economic & Financial History)

References listed on IDEAS
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Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hugh Rockoff, 2004. "Until it's Over, Over There: The U.S. Economy in World War I," NBER Working Papers 10580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Karakacili, Eona, 2004. "English Agrarian Labor Productivity Rates Before the Black Death: A Case Study," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(01), pages 24-60, March. [Downloadable!]
Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Campbell, Bruce M. S., 1997. "Matching Supply to Demand: Crop Production and Disposal by English Demesnes in the Century of the Black Death," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(04), pages 827-858, December. [Downloadable!]

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