Scale Effects, An Error of Aggregation Not Specification: Empirical Evidence
AbstractIn a set of influential papers, Charles Jones (1995a, 1995b, 1999) argued that R&D based endogenous growth models are inconsistent with the data. He showed, in a very striking manner, that the scale effects prediction of early endogenous growth models (e.g. Romer, 1986 and 1990, Grossman and Helpman, 1991, and Aghion and Howitt, 1992) is not borne out in the data. Standard endogenous growth models attribute constant or increasing returns in the stock of knowledge or technology to the aggregate level of resources. This assumption leads to the counterfactual prediction that the rate of productivity growth should be increasing in the aggregate amount of resources devoted to accumulating knowledge. This paper presents empirical evidence in support of R&D based endogenous growth models without scale effects (e.g. Young, 1998, Howitt, 1999, Thompson, 2001, and Peretto and Smulders, 2002). In these models the average level of workers or R&D workers per firm drives growth as opposed to the aggregate level and do not share the scale effects property in the limit. Using data for the US covering 1964-2001, we show that when the number of employees or scientists/engineers are scaled down on a per establishment basis, the empirics support the latter version of endogenous growth models. Specifically, the long-run size of establishments is stable, neither declining or growing in the long-run, where size is measured in two ways: by workers per establishment and R&D workers per establishment. Second, we demonstrate a positive effect running from average establishment size to productivity growth as predicted by the theories.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c009_037.
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aghion, Philippe & Harris, Christopher & Vickers, John, 1997. "Competition and growth with step-by-step innovation: An example," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 771-782, April.
- Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
- Elias Dinopoulos & Peter Thompson, 1999. "Scale effects in Schumpeterian models of economic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 157-185.
- Backus, David K. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1992.
"In search of scale effects in trade and growth,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 377-409, December.
- Geweke, John F & Meese, Richard, 1981.
"Estimating Regression Models of Finite but Unknown Order,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 55-70, February.
- Geweke, John & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 162-162, May.
- Patrizio Pagano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2001.
"Firm Size Distribution and Growth,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
394, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1991.
"Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1989.
"Quality Ladders and Product Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
3201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles I. Jones, .
"Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?,"
99001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
- Zvi Griliches, 1998. "R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril98-1, December.
- Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Yi, Kei-Mu, 1997. "Is There Endogenous Long-Run Growth? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 235-62, May.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
- Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Cohen, Wesley M & Klepper, Steven, 1996. "A Reprise of Size and R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 925-51, July.
- James D. Adams & Adam B. Jaffe, 1996.
"Bounding the Effects of R&D: An Investigation Using Matched Establishment-Firm Data,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(4), pages 700-721, Winter.
- James D. Adams & Adam B. Jaffe, 1996. "Bounding the Effects of R&D: An Investigation Using Matched Establishment-Firm Data," NBER Working Papers 5544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
- Klette, Tor Jakob & Kortum, Samuel, 2002.
"Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation,"
02/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Innovating firms and aggregate innovation," Staff Report 300, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," NBER Working Papers 8819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klette, Tor Jakob & Kortum, Samuel S, 2002. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Peretto, Pietro F., 1996.
"Technological Change and Population Growth,"
96-28, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Peretto, P. & Smulders, J.A., 2002.
"Technological distance, growth and scale effects,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-89730, Tilburg University.
- Dinopoulos, Elias & Thompson, Peter, 1998. " Schumpeterian Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 313-35, December.
- Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
- Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
- Peretto, Pietro F., 1999. "Cost reduction, entry, and the interdependence of market structure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 173-195, February.
- Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
- Aghion, Philippe, et al, 2001. "Competition, Imitation and Growth with Step-by-Step Innovation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 467-92, July.
- Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michaela Rank).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.