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Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks

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Author Info
Dan Ben-David
Robin L. Lumsdaine
David H. Papell

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Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the unit root hypothesis and long-term growth by allowing for two structural breaks. We reject the unit root hypothesis for three-quarters of the countries approximately 50% more rejections than in models that allow for only one break. While about half of the countries exhibit slowdowns following their postwar breaks, the others have grown along paths that have become steeper over the past 120 years. The majority of the countries, including most of the slowdown countries, exhibit faster growth after their second breaks than during the decades preceding their first breaks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6397.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6397

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
O5 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  6. Raj, Baldev, 1992. "International Evidence on Persistence in Output in the Presence of an Episodic Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 281-93, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  8. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1997. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," NBER Working Papers 6266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
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  11. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  12. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Are 19 Developed Countries' Real Per Capita GDP levels Non-stationary? A Revisit," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(2), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dierk HERZER & Rainer KLUMP, 2009. "Poverty, Government Transfers, And The Business Cycle: Evidence For The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2005. "Portugal-EU convergence revisited: evidence for the period 1960-2003," NIPE Working Papers 10/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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  4. VALADKHANI, A. & LAYTON, Allan P. & PAHLAVANI, M., 2005. "Multiple Structural Breaks In Australia’S Macroeconomic Data: An Application Of The Lumsdaine And Papell Test," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 31-44. [Downloadable!]
  5. Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public debt, the unit root hypothesis and structural breaks: a multi-country analysis," Post-Print halshs-00081527_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Dierk Herzer & Rainer Klump, 2006. "Poverty, Government Transfers, and the Business Cycle: Evidence for the United States," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 141, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81. [Downloadable!]
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  8. George Hammond, 2006. "A time series analysis of U.S. metropolitan and non-metropolitan income divergence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 81-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2002. "Random Walks and Non-Linear Paths in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications," Working Papers geewp22, Vienna University of Economics and B.A. Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cuberes, David & Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2008. "Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals," MPRA Paper 11646, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Valadkhani, Abbas & Layton, Allan P. & Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2005. "Multiple Structural Breaks in Australia's Macroeconomic Data: An Application of the Lumsdaine and Papell Test," Economics Working Papers wp05-17, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Chancharat,Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "Testing for the Random Walk Hypothesis and Structural Breaks in International Stock Prices," Economics Working Papers wp07-15, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Cuberes, David, 2008. "Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals," MPRA Paper 8430, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Shu-Chen Kang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2008. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in Latin American Countries? Evidence from a Panel Stationary Test with Structural Breaks," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  15. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Gavin Cameron, 2000. "The Sun Also Rises: Productivity Convergence Between Japan and the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 045, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  17. ALTINAY, Galip, 2005. "Structural Breaks in Long-Term Turkish Macroeconomic Data,1923-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(4). [Downloadable!]
  18. Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Wilson, Ed & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Structural Changes in the Iranian Economy: An Empirical Analysis with Endogenously Determined Breaks," Economics Working Papers wp05-05, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  19. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado, 2006. "Growth Outside The Stable Path: Lessons From The European Reconstruction," Departmental Working Papers 2006-02, McGill University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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