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Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries

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Author Info
Ben-David, Dan
Papell, David

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Abstract

Many countries, both industrialized and developing, appear to have experienced a slowdown in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority exhibit a significant structural break in their post-war growth rates. In nearly all of these cases the break was followed by a growth slowdown. The breaks fall into two primary periods which delineate countries by developmental and regional characteristics as well as by the magnitude of the subsequent slowdowns.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1111.

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Date of creation: Feb 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1111

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth; Meltdowns; Slowdowns;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
O5 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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  1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ben-David, Dan, 1994. "Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bruno, Michael, 1984. "Raw Materials, Profits, and the Productivity Slowdown," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 1-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Symposium on the Slowdown in Productivity Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 3-7, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Griliches, Zvi, 1980. "R & D and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 343-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  13. Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995. "The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact," Papers 36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  14. Kumiharu Shigehara, 1992. "Causes of declining growth in industrialized countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 15-39.
  15. Nordhaus, William D., 1982. "Economic policy in the face of declining productivity growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 131-157. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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