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Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation

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  • Mohitosh Kejriwal
  • Claude Lopez

Abstract

Determining whether per capita output can be characterized by a stochastic trend is complicated by the fact that infrequent breaks in trend can bias standard unit root tests towards nonrejection of the unit root hypothesis. The bulk of the existing literature has focused on the application of unit root tests allowing for structural breaks in the trend function under the trend stationary alternative but not under the unit root null. These tests, however, provide little information regarding the existence and number of trend breaks. Moreover, these tests suffer from serious power and size distortions due to the asymmetric treatment of breaks under the null and alternative hypotheses. This article estimates the number of breaks in trend employing procedures that are robust to the unit root/stationarity properties of the data. Our analysis of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries thereby permits a robust classification of countries according to the “growth shift,” “level shift,” and “linear trend” hypotheses. In contrast to the extant literature, unit root tests conditional on the presence or absence of breaks do not provide evidence against the unit root hypothesis.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07474938.2012.690689
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 892-927

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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:32:y:2013:i:8:p:892-927

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Cited by:
  1. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2012. "Non-renewable resource prices. A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," MPRA Paper 42523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
  4. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  5. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2009. "A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-005, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  6. Nuno Sobreira & Luís Catela Nunes & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests," Working Papers w201313, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  7. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.

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