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Disease, Downturns, and Wellbeing: Economic History and the Long-Run Impacts of COVID-19

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  • Vellore Arthi
  • John Parman

Abstract

How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a heavy human cost—taken together, this public health crisis and its attendant economic downturn appear poised to dwarf the scope, scale, and disruptiveness of most modern pandemics. What evidence we do have about other modern pandemics is largely limited to short-run impacts. Consequently, recent experience can do little to help us anticipate and respond to COVID-19’s potential long-run impact on individuals over decades and even generations. History, however, offers a solution. Historical crises offer closer analogues to COVID-19 in each of its key dimensions—as a global pandemic, as a global recession—and offer the runway necessary to study the life-course and intergenerational outcomes. In this paper, we review the evidence on the long-run effects on health, labor, and human capital of both historical pandemics (with a focus on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic) and historical recessions (with a focus on the Great Depression). We conclude by discussing how past crises can inform our approach to COVID-19—helping tell us what to look for, what to prepare for, and what data we ought to collect now.

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  • Vellore Arthi & John Parman, 2020. "Disease, Downturns, and Wellbeing: Economic History and the Long-Run Impacts of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27805
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences

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    2. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2023. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," QUCEH Working Paper Series 23-10, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    4. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2021. "Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(2), pages 173-195, June.
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    6. Ager, Philipp & Eriksson, Katherine & Karger, Ezra & Nencka, Peter & Thomasson, Melissa A., 2020. "School Closures During the 1918 Flu Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 15575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    9. Basco, Sergi & Domènech, Jordi & Rosés, Joan R., 2024. "Socioeconomic mortality differences during the Great Influenza in Spain," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Benjamin Schneider & Hillary Vipond, 2023. "The Past and Future of Work: How History Can Inform the Age of Automation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10766, CESifo.
    11. Valentiny, Pál, 2023. "Koronavírus-járvány és versenyszabályozás [Competition policy and the coronavirus pandemic]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 398-431.
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    13. George Bucata, 2021. "Management Analysis Of The Impact Of Covid-19 In Romania," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 50-62, August.
    14. Schneider, Benjamin & Vipond, Hillary, 2023. "The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation," Economic History Working Papers 119282, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    15. Carmen Valentina Radulescu & Georgiana-Raluca Ladaru & Sorin Burlacu & Florentina Constantin & Corina Ioanăș & Ionut Laurentiu Petre, 2020. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Romanian Labor Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Kohnert, Dirk, 2021. "On the socio-economic impact of pandemics in Africa: Lessons learned from COVID-19, Trypanosomiasis, HIV, Yellow Fever and Cholera," MPRA Paper 107561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    18. Ogasawara, Kota, 2022. "Pandemic influenza and gender imbalance: Mortality selection before births," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    19. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Daisuke Murakami & Tomoko Matsui & Tor A. Myrvoll, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 type events on the economy and climate under the stochastic DICE model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(3), pages 459-476, July.
    20. Lauren Hoehn-Velasco & Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar & Adan Silverio-Murillo & Sherajum Monira Farin, 2023. "Marriage and divorce during a pandemic: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marital formation and dissolution in Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 757-788, September.
    21. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Daisuke Murakami & Tomoko Matsui & Tor A. Myrvoll, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 type events on the economy and climate under the stochastic DICE model," Papers 2111.00835, arXiv.org.
    22. Jinho Kim & Sujeong Park & S. V. Subramanian & Taehoon Kim, 2023. "The Psychological Costs of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Heterogeneous Effects in South Korea: Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Analysis," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 455-476, February.
    23. Masato Shizume, 2022. "The Great Influenza Pandemic in Japan: Policy Responses and Socioeconomic Consequences," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2022.
    24. Tekgüç, Hasan & Ünsal, Ezgi & Yeldan, A. Erinc, 2021. "Poverty and Income Distribution Incidence of the COVID-19 Outbreak: Investigating Socially Responsible Policy Alternatives for Turkey," Conference papers 333248, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

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