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The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012

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  • Kristoph Naggert
  • Robert W. Rich
  • Joseph Tracy

Abstract

The stabilization, or anchoring, of inflation expectations at a target can help a central bank meet its goals. This paper develops a measure of expectations’ anchoring that combines the deviation of a consensus forecast from an inflation target with forecaster disagreement. We apply the measure to survey-based forecasts of PCE price inflation at medium- and longer-run horizons. Following the FOMC’s 2012 announcement of a 2 percent inflation target, the anchoring of both forecast series steadily improved through 2020:Q4. Recently, while longer-run expectations have remained well-anchored, the anchoring of medium-run expectations weakened significantly during the pandemic before strengthening in 2023:Q1.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(11), pages 1-7, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:96449
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202311
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan K. Detmeister & Daeus Jorento & Emily Massaro & Ekaterina V. Peneva, 2015. "Did the Fed's Announcement of an Inflation Objective Influence Expectations?," FEDS Notes 2015-06-08-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Steve Brito & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2018. "Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2018/024, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Demertzis Maria & Marcellino Massimiliano & Viegi Nicola, 2012. "A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, June.
    4. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(09), pages 1-7, April.
    5. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    6. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
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