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Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency

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  • Steve Brito
  • Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
  • Bertrand Gruss

Abstract

We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on the benefits of inflation targeting regimes and central bank transparency. The reduction in disagreement that follows the adoption of inflation targeting is entirely due to increased central bank transparency. Since the benefits of increased transparency are non-linear, the gains from inflation targeting adoption have accrued mainly to countries that started from a low level of transparency. These have tended to be developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Brito & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2018. "Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2018/024, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/024
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    Cited by:

    1. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2021. "Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2018. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2018/156, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    4. Kuester, Keith & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Müller, Gernot & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 15689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Melih Firat & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jimenez, 2023. "State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 2023/086, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
    7. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2023. "Shipping costs and inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Kristoph Naggert & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(11), pages 1-7, July.
    9. Sangyong Joo & Daehwan Kim & Jeffrey Nilsen, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Korea: A Decomposition Analysis," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 327-366.
    10. José Antonio Ocampo-Gaviria & Carlos Eduardo Caballero Argáez & María del Pilar Esguerra-Umaña & Miguel Urrutia-Montoya & Antonio Hernández-Gamarra, 2023. "Ensayos de historia económica. Cien años del Banco de la República," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 2023-isbn:9789586644730 edited by Luis I.Jácome & Samuel Pienknagura & Leonardo Villar Gómez & Esguerra Umaña Pilar, December.
    11. Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021. "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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