IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/94704.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to a Contraction in Labor Supply?

Author

Listed:
  • Takushi Kurozumi
  • Willem Van Zandweghe

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that a central bank should tighten monetary policy after a surprise decline in labor supply to offset the inflationary effects of the decline. However, this policy prescription comes from models of monetary policy that abstract from labor force participation. We examine the policy implications of worker entry into and exit from the labor force. We find that cyclical changes in labor force participation call for a less restrictive policy response to a decline in labor supply. The less restrictive policy response is appropriate because policy tightening reduces the labor force and thus raises wage growth. The optimal policy response dampens the reduction in the labor force and brings about a period of higher inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2022. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to a Contraction in Labor Supply?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(13), pages 1-5, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:94704
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202213
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-ec-202213?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faberman, R. Jason & Mueller, Andreas I. & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2022. "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Hart, 2023. "Hours vs employment in response to demand shocks," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 393-393, February.
    2. Dain Lee & Jinhyeok Park & Yongseok Shin, 2024. "Where Are the Workers? From Great Resignation to Quiet Quitting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 106(1), pages 59-71, January.
    3. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2022. "Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2023. "Long Social Distancing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(S1), pages 129-172.
    5. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James (Jim) C. MacGee & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-3, Bank of Canada.
    6. Joseph Richardson, 2023. "Health Risks and Labour Supply," Working Papers 379420583, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Clymo, Alex & Comunello, Camila & Jäckle, Annette & Visschers, Ludo & Zentler-Munro, David, 2023. "Search and reallocation in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Sargent, Kristina, 2023. "The labor market impacts of Brexit: Migration and the European union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    10. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2022. "Labor Supply Shocks, Labor Force Entry, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 22-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2020.
    11. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mary Amiti & Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Beckmannshagen, Mattis & Schröder, Carsten, 2022. "Earnings inequality and working hours mismatch," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. William D. Craighead, 2022. "Pandemic Preference Shocks and Inflation in a New Keynesian Model," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 133-146, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment; covid-19;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:94704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.