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Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth

Author

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  • Kurt Graden Lunsford

Abstract

Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, and, in 2015, it took steps to improve the seasonal adjustment of data back to 2012. I show that residual seasonality in GDP growth remains even after these adjustments, has been a longer-term phenomenon, and is particularly noticeable in the 1990s. The size of this residual seasonality is economically meaningful and has the ability to change the interpretation of recent economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2017. "Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00067
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Victoria Consolvo & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2019. "Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Remains after Latest BEA Improvements," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue April.
    3. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    4. McElroy Tucker, 2021. "A Diagnostic for Seasonality Based Upon Polynomial Roots of ARMA Models," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(2), pages 367-394, June.

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