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Modelling economies in transition: an introduction

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  • Hall, S.
  • Mizon, G.E.
  • Welfe, A.

Abstract

This paper considers the implications of structural breaks, such as have occurred in many transition economies, for econometric modelling based on the multivariate cointegration paradigm. It outlines recent developments on the identification of linear cointegrated systems, discusses some practical problems, and presents an extension to non-linear systems. This is followed by a discussion of the impact of structural breaks on the identification and estimation of such systems. Finally, it relates these issues to the other papers in this volume.

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File URL: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/33154/1/9919.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 9919.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:9919

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  1. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-91, May.
  3. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-61, September.
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  5. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct.
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  8. Anonymous, 1995. "Research Updates," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 26(1), February.
  9. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  11. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  17. Stephen G. Hall & Jennifer V. Greenslade & S. G. Brian Henry, 1999. "On the Identification of Cointegrated Systems in Small Samples: Practical Procedures with an Application to UK Wages and Prices," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 643, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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  21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  23. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  24. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
  25. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, Ron P., 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9811, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  27. Davidson, James & Hall, Stephen, 1991. "Cointegration in Recursive Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 239-51, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Moller Andersen, Frits & Celov, Dmitry & Grinderslev, Dorte & Kazlauskas, Arvydas, 2005. "A macro-econometric model of Lithuania LITMOD," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 707-719, July.
  2. Cheong, ChongCheul, 2003. "Regime changes and econometric modeling of the demand for money in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 437-453, May.
  3. Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors & Bas van Aarle, 2004. "Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-722, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez, 1998. "Structural change in regional economies: A varying coefficients econometric modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa98p189, European Regional Science Association.
  6. van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.
  7. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "Demographic pressure, excess labour supply and public-private sector employment in Egypt - Modelling labour supply to analyse the response of unemployment, public finances and welfare," MPRA Paper 31101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Bruno Merlevede & Joseph Plasmans & Bas van Aarle, 2003. "A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 221-250, July.
  9. Natasa Erjavec, 2003. "Applied macroeconometrics in transition economy: Croatian experience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 23444, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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