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Wage and Price Dynamics in Portugal

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  • Carlos Robalo Marques

Abstract

This paper investigates the persistence of aggregate wages and prices in Portugal assuming a model of a unionized economy with imperfect competition. An impulse response analysis is conducted where the structural shocks are identified by taking into account the long-run properties of the model, as well as the cointegrating and weak-exogeneity properties of the system. Real wages and wage inflation emerge as especially persistent following an import price shock, while price inflation is more persistent following an unemployment shock. At the business cycle horizon variation in the forecast errors of wages is attributable mainly to unemployment shocks (about 80 percent), whereas variation in the forecast errors of prices is attributable mainly to import price shocks (about 60 percent) and to unemployment shocks (around 20 percent). Productivity shocks explain somewhat less than 10 percent of the variation in forecast errors of wages and prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200815.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200815

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  1. DREZE, Jacques & BEAN, Charles, 1990. "Europe's employment problem: Introduction and synthesis," CORE Discussion Papers 1990041, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques & Fernando Martins, 2012. "Labour cost-cutting strategies microeconomic evidence from survey data," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Rita Duarte & Carlos Marques, 2013. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 613-638, April.
  3. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo & Martins, Fernando, 2013. "Wage rigidity and employment adjustment at the firm level: Evidence from survey data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 40-49.

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