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Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Hans-Martin Krolzig () (University of Oxford)
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This paper suggests a new methodological approach to the analysis of cointegrated linear systems subject to changes in regime. We consider cointegrated vector autoregressive processes where Markovian shifts occur in the equilibrium mean and the drift of the system. A two-stage maximum likelihood estimation technique is proposed. In the first stage, based on a finite order VAR approximation of the cointegrated VARMA representation, the Johansen cointegration analysis is invoked to determine the cointegration rank and to estimate the cointegration matrix. An EM algorithm delivers the maximum likelihood estimates of the remaining parameters. The methodology is illustrated with an investigation of international and global business cycles.
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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 with number
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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:1113Contact details of provider: Postal: CEF99, Boston College, Department of Economics, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA Fax: +1-617-552-2308 Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/CEF99/ More information through EDIRC
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Peter Tillmann, 2004.
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"The European Business Cycle ,"
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Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999.
"The European Business Cycle ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Artis, M. & Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999.
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Sarno, Lucio & Giorgio Valente, 2002.
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Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000.
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NBER Working Papers
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Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002.
"The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond ,"
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3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003.
"The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond ,"
Journal of International Economics ,
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Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003.
"Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States ,"
Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting]
e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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Other versions: Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2001.
"A New Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycle Transitions in a Model of Output and Employment ,"
Economics Series Working Papers
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Other versions: Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000.
"Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model ,"
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Other versions: M. Portugal & I.A. de Morais, 2004.
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Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio & Wohar, Mark E, 2003.
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CEPR Discussion Papers
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Sarno, Lucio & Wohar, Mark, 2003.
"Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Different Nominal Regimes ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
310, Society for Computational Economics.
Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004.
"Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes ,"
Economic Inquiry ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2005.
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4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Giorgio Valente & Mark Taylor & Lucio Sarno & Richard Clarida, 2004.
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Working Papers
wp04-13, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
[Downloadable!] Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006.
"The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates ,"
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"A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market ,"
Working Papers
185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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Krolzig, H-M. & Marcellino, M. & Mizon, G.E., 2001.
"A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market ,"
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, .
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Working Papers
145, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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Marcellino, M. & Mizon, G.E., 1999.
"Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland, and the UK ,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
9917, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000.
"Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK ,"
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