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Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration

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Ericsson, Neil R.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 14 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 465-495
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:14:y:1992:i:4:p:465-495

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edison, Hali J & Klovland, Jan Tore, 1987. "A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 309-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Clive W. J. Granger & Melinda Deutsch, 1991. "Comments on the evaluation of policy models," International Finance Discussion Papers 413, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, A R, 1983. "Heteroscedasticity in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1233-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Diebold, Francis X., 1989. "Forecast combination and encompassing: Reconciling two divergent literatures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 589-592. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1980. "Dummy variables and predictive tests for structural change," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 241-247. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  11. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Chow, Gregory C., 1984. "Random and changing coefficient models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1213-1245 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pesaran, M H, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 153-71, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pagan, Adrian, 1989. "On the role of simulation in the statistical evaluation of econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 125-139, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Neil R. Ericsson & Julia Campos & Hong-Anh Tran, 1991. "PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology," International Finance Discussion Papers 406, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Kiviet, Jan F, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2), pages 241-61, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Schinasi, Garry J. & Swamy, P. A. V. B., 1989. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 375-390, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Recursive stability analysis of linear regression relationships: An exploratory methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 31-76, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Edison, Hali J, 1991. "Forecast Performance of Exchange Rate Models Revisited," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 187-96, Part B, J.
  22. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Fisher, Franklin M, 1970. "Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: An Expository Note," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 361-66, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  27. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Garry J. Schinasi, 1986. "Should fixed coefficients be reestimated every period for extrapolation?," International Finance Discussion Papers 287, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  29. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Approximations to the Distribution of Econometric Criteria Which are Asymptotically Distributed as Chi-Squared," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1107-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Edison, Hali J, 1985. "The Rise and Fall of Sterling: Testing Alternative Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 1003-21, December.
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  31. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1973-3), pages 577-646. [Downloadable!]
  32. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Vega, 2002. "The information content of M3 for future inflation in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 22-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  4. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1991. "Comparing predictive accuracy I: an asymptotic test," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 52, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. repec:att:wimass:19199936 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September. [Downloadable!]
  11. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Jaime Marquez, 1992. "Real exchange rates: measurement and implications for predicting U.S. external imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 427, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The fragility of sensitivity analysis: an encompassing perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 959, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, . "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  16. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Luis Vega-Croissier, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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