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Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom

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  • Neil R. Ericsson
  • David F. Hendry

Abstract

The statistical formulation of the econometric model is viewed as a sequence of marginalizing and conditioning operations which reduce the parameterization to manageable dimensions. Such operations entail that the "error" is a derived rather than an autonomous process, suggesting designing the model to satisfy data-based and theory criteria. The relevant concepts are explained and applied to data modelling of UK new house prices in the framework of an economic theory-model of house builders. The econometric model is compared with univariate time-series models and tested against a range of alternatives.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 254.

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Date of creation: 1985
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:254

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  1. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
  2. Pesaran, M H, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 153-71, April.
  3. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  4. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  5. James G. MacKinnon, 1983. "Model Specification Tests Against Non-Nested Alternatives," Working Papers 573, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Anderson, Gordon J & Hendry, David F, 1984. "An Econometric Model of United Kingdom Building Societies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(3), pages 185-210, August.
  7. Davidson, James E. H. & Hendry, David F., 1981. "Interpreting econometric evidence : The behaviour of consumers' expenditure in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 177-192.
  8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  9. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  10. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
  11. Dastoor, Naorayex K., 1983. "Some aspects of testing non-nested hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-228, February.
  12. Bean, Charles R, 1981. "An Econometric Model of Manufacturing Investment in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 106-21, March.
  13. Domowitz, Ian & White, Halbert, 1982. "Misspecified models with dependent observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 35-58, October.
  14. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-78, May.
  15. Kiviet, Jan F, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 241-61, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Neil R. Ericsson, 1994. "Conditional and structural error correction models," International Finance Discussion Papers 487, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Bar-Nathan, Moshe & Beenstock, Michael & Haitovsky, Yoel, 1998. "The market for housing in Israel," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 21-49, January.
  3. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
  4. Olympia Bover, 1993. "Un modelo empírico de la evolución de los precios de la vivienda en España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 65-86, January.
  5. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1989. "An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 355, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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