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Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth?

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Author Info
Anindya Banerjee
Massimiliano Marcellino

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Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the relative merits of three approaches to information extraction from a large data set for forecasting, namely, the use of an automated model selection procedure, the adoption of a factor model, and single-indicator-based forecast pooling. The comparison is conducted using a large set of indicators for forecasting US inflation and GDP growth. We also compare our large set of leading indicators with purely autoregressive models, using an evaluation procedure that is particularly relevant for policy making. The evaluation is conducted both ex-post and in a pseudo real time context, for several forecast horizons, and using both recursive and rolling estimation. The results indicate a preference for simple forecasting tools, with a good relative performance of pure autoregressive models, and substantial instability in the leading characteristics of the indicators.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 236.

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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:236

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  1. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Richard J. Smith & Martin Weale, 1999. "An Automatic Leading Indicator of Economic Activity: Forecasting GDP growth for European Countries," NIESR Discussion Papers 149, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  4. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rita S. Chu & Charles Steindel, 2000. "The unreliability of inflation indicators," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 537, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Gold Prices and Inflation," Working Papers 07-35, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jonas Dovern, 2006. "Predicting GDP Components. Do Leading Indicators Increase Predictability?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP : Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. P.J.G. Vlaar & A.H.J. den Reijer, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 107, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  11. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, . "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Marie Diron & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Forecasting the central bank’s inflation objective is a good rule of thumb," Working Paper Series 564, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. A.H.J. den Reijer & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2003. "Forecasting Inflation in the Netherlands and the Euro Area," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 723, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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