Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures
AbstractDisputes about econometric methodology partly reflect a lack of evidence on alternative approaches. We reconsider econometric model selection from a computer-automation perspective, focusing on general-to-specific reductions, embodied in PcGets. Starting from a general congruent model, standard testing procedures eliminate statistically-insignificant variables, with diagnostic tests checking the validity of reductions, ensuring a congruent final selection. Since jointly selecting and diagnostic testing has eluded theoretical analysis, we study modelling strategies by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments show that PcGets recovers the DGP specification from a general model with size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 3.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2000
Date of revision:
econometric methodology; model selection; encompassing; data mining; Monte Carlo experiments; money demand; consumption function;
Other versions of this item:
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & David Hendry, 1999. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 314, Society for Computational Economics.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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