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General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation

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Author Info
Luc Bauwens ()
Genaro Sucarrat ()

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Abstract

The general-to-specific (GETS) methodology is widely employed in the modelling of economic series, but less so in financial volatility modelling due to computational complexity when many explanatory variables are involved. This study proposes a simple way of avoiding this problem when the conditional mean can appropriately be restricted to zero, and undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the methodology applied to the modelling of weekly exchange rate volatility. Our findings suggest that GETS specifications perform comparatively well in both ex post and ex ante forecasting as long as sufficient care is taken with respect to functional form and with respect to how the conditioning information is used. Also, our forecast comparison provides an example of a discrete time explanatory model being more accurate than realised volatility ex post in 1 step forecasting.

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we081810.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we081810

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate volatility; General to specific; Forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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