Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The track record of the Commission forecasts

Contents:

Author Info

  • Filip Keereman
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper argues that the Commission forecasts dispose of a reasonable track record. Most of the traditional tests for examining the quality of predictions are passed in a satisfactory way. The comparisons with forecasts made by the IMF, OECD and national forecast institutes are not unfavourable for the European Commission. In particular it is found that there is no strong evidence of presenting an overly optimistic picture of the economy in the Commission short-term forecasts. The rosy gloss which, according to some, sometimes hangs over the Commission forecasts is related to some form of cycle denial. This could maybe lead to an optimistic bias further ahead in the future, but applying this to the short-term forecasts of the European Commission is unjustified.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication11161_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 137.

    as in new window
    Length: 137 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0137

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
    Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
    Email:
    Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: economic forecasts; evaluation;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Klinger, Sabine & Heilemann, Ullrich, 2005. "Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen," Technical Reports 2005,16, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    2. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth?," Working Papers 236, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
    4. Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2010. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 794-807, October.
    5. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275.
    6. Birger Antholz, 2006. "Geschichte der quantitativen Konjunkturprognose-Evaluation in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 12-33.
    7. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:151:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Paredes, Joan & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2013. "Forecasting fiscal time series using mixed frequency data," Working Paper Series 1550, European Central Bank.
    10. Laura Carabotta, 2014. "Which Agency and Which Period is The Best? Analyzing National and International Fiscal Forecasts in Italy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-46.
    11. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.