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A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area

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Author Info
Cristadoro, Riccardo
Forni, Mario
Reichlin, Lucrezia
Veronese, Giovanni

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Abstract

This Paper proposes an index of core inflation for the euro area which exploits information from a large panel of time series on disaggregated prices, industrial production, labour market indicators, financial and monetary variables. The index is the result of a smoothing operation at both the cross-sectional and time series level. By extracting the common component of national inflation and disregarding the idiosyncratic one, we clean inflation from measurement error, discrepancies in data recording and dynamics originated by national or sectoral idiosyncratic shocks (cross-sectional smoothing). By extracting the component with periodicity longer than one year we clean from high frequency variation and seasonal components which are not relevant for monetary policy (time series smoothing). The indicator is shown to have a number of desirable characteristics and to perform very well as a forecaster of the euro area harmonized consumer price index at one and two years horizon, which is the relevant horizon for the ECB monetary policy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3097.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3097

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Related research
Keywords: core inflation; dynamic factor model; inflation forecast; monetary policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Le Bihan, Herve & Sedillot, Franck, 2000. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?: Out-of-sample evidence from French data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 261-266, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Riccardo Cristadoro & Fabrizio Venditti & Giuseppe Saporito, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area - does national information help?," Working Paper Series 900, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Maria Arrazola & Jose de Hevia, 2008. "A simple inflation indicator for the euro zone," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2387-2394. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based on Daily Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 5008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire," Kiel Working Papers 1364, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Emil Stavrev, 2006. "Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area: Assessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 06/197, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Rapacciuolo, Ciro, 2003. "Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana
    [A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation]    ," MPRA Paper 7714, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic factor models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 27-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Factor Models in Large Cross-Sections of Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 3285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Silvia Magri, 2002. "Italian households' debt: determinants of demand and supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 454, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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