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Core inflation in the Euro area

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Author Info

  • Fabio Bagliano
  • Roberto Golinelli
  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

Using a common trends model, a forward-looking 'core' inflation measure is estimated for the Euro area based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the 'two-pillar' monetary policy strategy of the ECB which focuses on medium-term inflation prospects.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13504850110086035&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 9 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 353-357

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:6:p:353-357

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Mariano Matilla-Garcia, 2005. "A SVAR model for estimating core inflation in the Euro zone," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 149-154.
  3. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "A policy-sensible core-inflation measure for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 617, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Claudio Morana, 2007. "A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 163-169.
  5. Maria Arrazola & Jose de Hevia, 2008. "A simple inflation indicator for the euro zone," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2387-2394.
  6. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Investigación Conjunta - español, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, edition 1, volume 1, number 1-12 edited by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA), July.
  8. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2007. "Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24.
  9. Rapacciuolo, Ciro, 2003. "Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana
    [A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation]
    ," MPRA Paper 7714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2005. "Dinero, precios, tasa de interés y actividad económica: un modelo del caso colombiano 1984:I-2003:IV," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-34, enero-mar.
  11. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanassios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data," Working papers 2005-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  12. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., . "Dinero, Precios, Tasa de Interés y Actividad Económica: Un Modelo del Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 303, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "A policy-sensible benchmark core inflation measure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 648-672, December.
  14. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
  15. Claudio Morana & Fabio Cesare Bagliano, 2007. "Inflation and monetary dynamics in the USA: a quantity-theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 229-244.
  16. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among them," IMF Working Papers 06/97, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Martha Misas A>rango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar Restrepo, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente En Colombia: Un Enfoque De Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas A Un Vec Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003026, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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