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Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Jürgen Wolters

Abstract

Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since several years. At the same time, the money demand function seems to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In fact, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 can be observed, and may reflect the exclusion of real and financial wealth in conventional specifications of money demand. This presumption is explored by means of a cointegration analysis. To separate income from wealth effects, the specification in terms of money velocity is preferred. Evidence for the presence of wealth in the long run relationship is provided. In particular, both stock and house prices have exerted a negative impact on velocity after 2001 and lead to almost identical equilibrium errors. The extended error correction model is stable over the entire sample period and survive a battery of specification tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Working Paper / FINESS with number 7.1b.

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Length: 23 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwfin:diwfin7.1b

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Keywords: Cointegration analysis; error correction; money demand; financial wealth; monetary policy;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
  2. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 860, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," FIW Working Paper series 119, FIW.
  4. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money Demand," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1382, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2011. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1131, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07041 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Dieter Nautz & Ulrike Rondorf, 2011. "The (in)stability of money demand in the euro area: lessons from a cross-country analysis," Empirica, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 539-553, November.
  8. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1142, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2012. "An early warning system to predict the speculative house price bubbles," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013. "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(8), pages 1-26.

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