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Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty

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Author Info
Lemke, Wolfgang
Greiber, Claus

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Abstract

In this study we construct a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty from several observable economic indicators for the euro area. Indicator variables are based on financial market data, such as medium-term returns, loss and volatility measures but also come from surveys that capture business and consumer sentiment. From these we estimate the path of underlying macroeconomic uncertainty using an unobserved components model. Employing cointegration analysis it is demonstrated that the extracted measures of uncertainty help to explain the increase in euro area M3 over the period 2001 to 2004. Similar evidence can be found for US monetary aggregates. --

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,26.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4220

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Related research
Keywords: Money demand; Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Excess Liquidity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kai Carstensen, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ingrid Groessl & Ulrich Fritsche, 2006. "The Store-of-Value-Function of Money as a Component of Household Risk Management," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200606, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mierzejewski, Fernando, 2007. "An actuarial approach to short-run monetary equilibrium," MPRA Paper 2424, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto A. De Santis & Carlo A. Favero & Barbara Roffia, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation - a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hofmann, Boris, 2006. "Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cronin, David & Kennedy, Bernard, 2007. "Does Uncertainty Impact Money Growth? A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/07, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  8. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Money velocity and asset prices in the euro area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Abelardo Salazar Neaves & Oliver Hossfeld & Jan Hagen & Kai Carstensen, 2008. "Money Demand Stability and Inflation: Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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