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Consumption, Wealth and Business Cycles in Germany

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  • Britta Hamburg
  • Mathias Hoffmann
  • Joachim Keller

Abstract

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income in Germany, based on data from 1980 to 2003. While earlier studies — mostly for the Anglo-Saxon economies — have generally documented that departures of these three variables from their common trend signal changes in asset prices, we find that for Germany they predict changes in income. Asset price changes are found to have virtually no effect on consumption — both in the short as well as in the long-run. We offer an explanation of this finding that emphasizes differences between the bank-based German financial system and the rather market-based Anglo-American system: stock ownership by private households is much less widespread in Germany than in the Anglo-Saxon economies and the share of publicly traded equity in household wealth is much smaller in Germany than in the U.S., the UK or Australia.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2005/wp-cesifo-2005-04/cesifo1_wp1443.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1443.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1443

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Keywords: wealth effect on consumption; business cycles; monetary policy transmission; financial systems; asset price predictability; permanent income hypothesis;

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References

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  1. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06.
  2. Mathias Hoffmann, 2006. "Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk, and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 1712, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Lance A. Fisher & Graham M. Voss, 2004. "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 359-372, December.
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  23. Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles: why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  24. Poterba, James M & Venti, Steven F & Wise, David A, 1998. "401(k) Plans and Future Patterns of Retirement Saving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 179-84, May.
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  27. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2010. "The Effects of Financial and Real Wealth on Consumption: New Evidence from OECD Countries," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 38, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  2. Martin Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2004. "Sustaining Social Security," 2004 Meeting Papers 199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth: common and idiosyncratic effects," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 21-34, April.
  4. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 425, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 535, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  6. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, 02.
  7. Eilev Jansen, 2013. "Wealth effects on consumption in financial crises: the case of Norway," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 873-904, October.
  8. Thomas Nitschka, 2012. "Global and country-specific business cycle risk in time-varying excess returns on asset markets," Working Papers 2012-10, Swiss National Bank.
  9. Vetlov, Igor & Warmedinger, Thomas, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 0654, European Central Bank.
  10. Oliver Holtemöller & Rainer Schulz, 2010. "Investor Rationality and House Price Bubbles: Berlin and the German Reunification," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 465-486, November.
  11. Benjamin R. Auer, 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, September.
  12. Chauvin, V. & Damette, O., 2010. "Wealth effects: the French case," Working papers 276, Banque de France.

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