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International evidence for return predictability and the implications for long-run covariation of the G7 stock markets

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  • Thomas Nitschka

Abstract

Temporary fluctuations of the U.S. consumption-wealth ratio, cay, predict excess returns on international stock markets at the business cycle frequency. This finding is the reflection of a common, temporary component in national stock markets. Exposure to this common component explains up to 60 percent of the covariation among long-horizon returns on the G7 stock markets for the time period from 1973 to 2005. The impact of the common component on stock market comovement is particularly pronounced in the period from 1990 to 2005.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 338.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:338

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Keywords: U.S. consumption-wealth ratio; stock market comovement; stock return predictability;

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  1. Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2000. "Consumption and Wealth," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price & Andrew Blake, 2003. "The dynamics of consumers' expenditure: the UK consumption ECM redux," Bank of England working papers 204, Bank of England.
  3. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
  4. Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles: why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2005. "Firm-level evidence on international stock market comovement," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. " Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
  7. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
  8. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Comovements in National Stock Market Returns," IMF Working Papers 96/28, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Lance A. Fisher & Graham M. Voss, 2004. "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 359-372, December.
  10. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
  11. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  12. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Working Paper 2002-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
  14. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, 06.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and Predictability of the Carry Trade Premium: Euro Area Evidence," IEW - Working Papers 387, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Thomas Nitschka, 2012. "Global and country-specific business cycle risk in time-varying excess returns on asset markets," Working Papers 2012-10, Swiss National Bank.
  3. Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," CESifo Working Paper Series 2527, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "Banking sectors' international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "The Risk Premium on the Euro Area Market Portfolio: The Role of Real Estate," IEW - Working Papers 385, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  6. Nitschka, Thomas, 2013. "The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 118-124.

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