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The dynamics of consumers' expenditure: the UK consumption ECM redux

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Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo
Simon Price
Andrew Blake

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Abstract

Simple intertemporal consumption theory implies that non-durable consumption is a random walk, but that consumption cointegrates with income and wealth. By the Granger representation theorem, there must be a (vector) error correction mechanism ((V)ECM) representation of the data; but from the theory, the equilibrating ECM cannot be in consumption. Instead, even with generalisations such as habit persistence, this equilibration should take place via income or wealth. Furthermore, unless the relative price of durables and non-durables is constant, the relative price needs to be taken into account in modelling. In this paper, the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship between non-durable consumption, non-asset income, wealth and the relative price of durable goods are examined. A cointegrating relationship is found to exist. Estimating VECMs, it is found that the adjustment towards the long-run common trend does indeed occur partly via changes in wealth, consistent with forward-looking behaviour on the part of agents. The result implies that consumption will predict asset returns, and this is confirmed by a regression of excess equity returns on the lagged disequilibrium term. A decomposition of shocks hitting the system reveals that between 30% and 90% of fluctuations in non-human wealth are transitory. Even if the lower figure applies, this means a substantial part of short-term fluctuations in wealth is decoupled from permanent consumption.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 204.

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 535, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Vincent Labhard & Gabriel Sterne & Chris Young, . "Wealth and consumption: an assessment of the international evidence," Bank of England working papers 275, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, . "Returns to equity, investment and Q: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 310, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roy Cromb & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, . "Long-term interest rates, wealth and consumption," Bank of England working papers 243, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Expectations, Shocks, and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 29/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  7. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Thomas Nitschka, 2005. "The U.S. consumption-wealth ratio and foreign stock markets: International evidence for return predictability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 22, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Stephen Millard & John Power, . "The effects of stock market movements on consumption and investment: does the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 236, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  11. Emmanuel De Veirman & Ashley Dunstan, 2008. "How do Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Interact? Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles : why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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