Econometric Evaluation of Consumers' Expenditure Equations
AbstractLarge errors in forecasting consumption in the late 1980s and early 1990s were a major contribution to the poor performance in economic forecasting overall. These errors have been attributed to the inability of existing models to capture important influences on consumer behavior, such as the effects of financial deregulation and shifts in expectations. Revisions to models followed their failure to predict the late 1980s boom; an important question is whether these developments help to explain the unanticipated downturn in consumers' expenditure in the early 1990s. This article presents an appraisal of eight recent U.K. consumption functions. It is found that these models can explain much of the rise in consumption in the late 1980s. However, forecast errors for the early 1990s, while within the historical range, are predominantly negative. The nature of this overprediction suggests that further research on household finances, including the role of housing as collateral, is required. Copyright 1994 by Oxford University Press.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.
Volume (Year): 10 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2 (Summer)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://oxrep.oupjournals.org/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price & Andrew Blake, 2003. "The dynamics of consumers' expenditure: the UK consumption ECM redux," Bank of England working papers 204, Bank of England.
- K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
- Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998.
"Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
- Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Byung Yeon Kim, .
"Soviet Household Saving Function,"
Ace Project Memoranda
96/14, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- David Begg & Stephany Griffith-Jones, 1998. "Swinging since the 60's: Fluctuations in UK Saving and Lessons for Latin America," Research Department Publications 3032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
- Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
- S. Sgherri, 2000.
"Monetary Transmission Channels, Monetary Regimes and ConsumptionBehaviour,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
53, Netherlands Central Bank.
- S. Sgherri, 1999. "Monetary transmission channels, monetary regimes and consumption behaviour," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 602, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Khoon Lek Goh & Richard Downing, 2002. "Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/19, New Zealand Treasury.
- Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.