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Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns

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  • Mathias Hoffmann

    ()
    (Economics University of Dortmund)

Abstract

The paper contributes to a recent empirical and theoretical literature that suggests that proprietors are an important group of stockholders and that entrepreneurial risk could therefore help explain time-varying risk premia on the aggregate stock market. I use the intertemporal budget constraint of the average U.S. household to derive a cointegrating relationship between consumption and income from proprietary and non-proprietary wealth. I call this cointegrating relationship the cpy -residual. I interpret cpy as an entrepreneurial risk factor, because it mainly reflects cyclical fluctuations in proprietary income and because it is highly correlated with cross-sectional measures of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk. The cpy residual turns out to be a potent predictor of excess returns on the aggregate stock market in postwar U.S. data. However, this predictive power has started to decline since the beginning of the 1980s as stock market participation has widened with the advent of tax-deferable employer-sponsored pension plans and as proprietary income risk has become more easily diversifiable in the wake of state level bank deregulation

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 229.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:229

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Keywords: Non-insurable background risk; entrepreneurial income; equity premium; long-horizon predictability; consumption risk sharing;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers 376, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Benjamin R. Auer, 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, September.
  3. Thomas Nitschka, 2010. "Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 49-65, March.
  4. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June.

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