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Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns

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Author Info
Mathias Hoffmann () (Economics University of Dortmund)

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Abstract

The paper contributes to a recent empirical and theoretical literature that suggests that proprietors are an important group of stockholders and that entrepreneurial risk could therefore help explain time-varying risk premia on the aggregate stock market. I use the intertemporal budget constraint of the average U.S. household to derive a cointegrating relationship between consumption and income from proprietary and non-proprietary wealth. I call this cointegrating relationship the cpy -residual. I interpret cpy as an entrepreneurial risk factor, because it mainly reflects cyclical fluctuations in proprietary income and because it is highly correlated with cross-sectional measures of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk. The cpy residual turns out to be a potent predictor of excess returns on the aggregate stock market in postwar U.S. data. However, this predictive power has started to decline since the beginning of the 1980s as stock market participation has widened with the advent of tax-deferable employer-sponsored pension plans and as proprietary income risk has become more easily diversifiable in the wake of state level bank deregulation

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 229.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:229

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Related research
Keywords: Non-insurable background risk; entrepreneurial income; equity premium; long-horizon predictability; consumption risk sharing;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2003. "Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth," NBER Working Papers 9605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Owen Lamont, 1998. "Earnings and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1563-1587, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
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  20. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
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  22. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 8876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Bent E. Sørensen & Yuliya Demyanyk & Charlotte Ostergaard, 2005. "U.S. Banking Deregulation, Small Businesses,and Interstate Insurance of Personal Income," Working Papers 2005-02, Department of Economics, University of Houston. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1993. "Corporate Financial Policy, Taxation, and Macroeconomic Risk," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(2), pages 286-303, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers iewwp376, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and Predictability of the Carry Trade Premium: Euro Area Evidence," IEW - Working Papers iewwp387, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
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