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A note on the cointegration of consumption, income, and wealth

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Jeremy Rudd
Karl Whelan

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Abstract

Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) argue that a log-linearized approximation to an aggregate budget constraint predicts that log consumption, assets, and labor income will be cointegrated. They conclude that this cointegrating relationship is present in U.S. data, and that the estimated cointegrating residual forecasts future asset growth. This note examines whether the cointegrating relationship suggested by Lettau and Ludvigson's theoretical framework actually exists. We demonstrate that we cannot reject the hypothesis that cointegration is absent from the data once we employ measures of consumption, assets, and labor income that are jointly consistent with an underlying budget constraint. By contrast, Lettau and Ludvigson use a set of variables that do not belong together in an aggregate budget constraint, thereby testing a cointegrating relationship that is not implied by their theory.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2002-53.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-53

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Keywords: Consumption (Economics) ; Income ; Wealth;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  7. Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2002. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/02, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vincent Labhard & Gabriel Sterne & Chris Young, . "Wealth and consumption: an assessment of the international evidence," Bank of England working papers 275, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Gao & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2004. "Aggregate consumption-wealth ratio and the cross-section of stock returns: some international evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 04-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 535, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Reexamining the consumption-wealth relationship: the role of model uncertainty," Staff Reports 202, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mathias Hoffmann, 2006. "Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk, and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2003. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-07, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Paul Hiebert, 2006. "Household Saving and Asset Valuations in Selected Industrialised Countries," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-07, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles : why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. John V. Duca, 2005. "Mutual funds and the evolving long-run effects of stock wealth on U.S. consumption," Working Papers 05-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Thomas Nitschka, 2005. "The U.S. consumption-wealth ratio and foreign stock markets: International evidence for return predictability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 22, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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