International Evidence for Return Predictability and the Implications for Long-Run Covariation of the G7 Stock Markets
AbstractTemporary fluctuations of the US consumption-wealth ratio do not only predict excess returns on the US but also international stock markets at the business cycle frequency. This finding is the reflection of a common, temporary component in national stock markets. Exposure to this common component explains up to 50% of the pairwise covariation among long-horizon returns on the G7 stock markets for the time period from 1970 to 2008. This latter finding is less pronounced in the post-1990s period. Copyright 2010 The Author. German Economic Review 2010 Verein für Socialpolitik.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 11 (2010)
Issue (Month): (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1465-6485
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Thomas Nitschka, 2007. "International evidence for return predictability and the implications for long-run covariation of the G7 stock markets," IEW - Working Papers 338, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- R-P. Berben & W.J. Jansen, 2001.
"Comovement in International Equity Markets: a Sectoral View,"
MEB Series (discontinued)
2001-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
- Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
- Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Finance 0310001, EconWPA.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995.
"Understanding Risk and Return,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1711, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Cochrane, 2005.
"Financial Markets and the Real Economy,"
NBER Working Papers
11193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lance A. Fisher & Graham M. Voss, 2004. "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 359-372, December.
- Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
- Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992.
" Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Campbell, John, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Scholarly Articles 3207694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Yasushi Hamao, 1989. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 3191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin Brooks, & Marc Del Negro, 2005.
"Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement,"
Kiel Working Papers
1244, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2006. "Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-98.
- Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2005. "Firm-level evidence on international stock market comovement," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2003. "Firm-level evidence on international stock market movement," Working Paper 2003-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2003. "Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement," IMF Working Papers 03/55, International Monetary Fund.
- Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002.
"The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?,"
2002-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
- Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles: why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, 06.
- Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
- Anthony J. Richards, 1996.
"Comovements in National Stock Market Returns: Evidence of Predictability but not Cointegration,"
IMF Working Papers
96/28, International Monetary Fund.
- Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
- Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price & Andrew Blake, 2003. "The dynamics of consumers' expenditure: the UK consumption ECM redux," Bank of England working papers 204, Bank of England.
- Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2000. "Consumption and Wealth," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Nitschka, Thomas, 2013. "The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 118-124.
- Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "The Risk Premium on the Euro Area Market Portfolio: The Role of Real Estate," IEW - Working Papers 385, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Thomas Nitschka, 2010.
"Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence,"
Financial Markets and Portfolio Management,
Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 49-65, March.
- Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and Predictability of the Carry Trade Premium: Euro Area Evidence," IEW - Working Papers 387, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2009.
"Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2527, CESifo Group Munich.
- Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers 376, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Thomas Nitschka, 2012. "Global and country-specific business cycle risk in time-varying excess returns on asset markets," Working Papers 2012-10, Swiss National Bank.
- Thomas Nitschka, 2012.
"Banking sector's international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe,"
2012-04, Swiss National Bank.
- Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "Banking sectors' international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.