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The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view

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  • Döpke, Jörg
  • Funke, Michael
  • Holly, Sean
  • Weber, Sebastian

Abstract

We establish some stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the level of the firm. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistic covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we analyse the reallocation across individual producers and, in turn, the connection of this reallocation to aggregate business cycles. The empirical results indicate a pronounced heterogeneity of real sale changes across firms. Moreover, the distribution of growth rates of firm's real sales is influenced by business cycle conditions. In particular, the cross-section skewness of real sales changes is strongly counter-cyclical. The results confirm most of the findings for the UK and the US by Higson et al. (2002, 2004) and are, therefore, robust stylised facts of the business cycle. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,23.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4217

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Keywords: business cycles; cross-sectional moments; firm growth;

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References

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  1. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2002. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macro Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 749-779.
  2. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S., 2002. "Further Evidence On The Relationship Between Firm Investment And Financial Status," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 653-58, June.
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  5. Caballero, R.J. & Engel, E.M.R.A., 1989. "Heterogeneity And Output Fluctuations In A Dynamic Menu Cost Economy," Discussion Papers 1989_40, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 805-52, August.
  8. Caplin, Andrew S & Spulber, Daniel F, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 703-25, November.
  9. Bronwyn H. Hall, 1988. "The Relationship Between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," NBER Working Papers 1965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  11. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  13. C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman & S. Platis, 2004. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross-Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 299-318, 05.
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Cited by:
  1. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "Firm-Specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications," 2009 Meeting Papers 869, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Döpke, J. & Funke, M. & Holly, S. & Weber, S., 2008. "The Cross-Section of Output and Inflation in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Sticky Prices," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0853, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Sean Holly & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Financial Fragility, Heterogeneous Firms and the Cross Section of the Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "The Cross-section of Firms over the Business Cycle: New Facts and a DSGE Exploration," CESifo Working Paper Series 2810, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Sebastian Weber & Joerg Doepke, 2006. "The Within-Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics of German Firms," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20609, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  6. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
  7. Weber, Sebastian & Döpke, Jörg, 2006. "The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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