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Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany

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Author Info
von Kalckreuth, Ulf

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Abstract

The impact of uncertainty on firms? investment outlays is subject to an ongoing debate. Theory identifies several channels. Irreversibility, financing constraints and risk aversion make a negative relationship between uncertainty and investment likely. On the other hand, the ability of firms to adapt after uncertainty is resolved can make a risky strategy more attractive. Therefore, risk may also constitute an incentive to invest. The net effect is theoretically indeterminate. The empirical literature has not yet been able to settle the question. This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on firm?s investment outlays using the database of the Deutsche Bundesbank?s corporate balance sheet statistics. Our database represents roughly 75% of the total turnover of the west German manufacturing sector. The sample used for estimation contains 6,745 firms with almost 50,000 observations, covering the years 1987 - 1997. This is a period long enough to generate measures of uncertainty specific to both firm and time. Using panel econometric methods, we estimate the effect of sales uncertainty and cost uncertainty on investment demand. We obtain two key results. First, there is a moderately strong and consistently negative effect of uncertainty on investment. If both uncertainty indicators are increased by one standard deviation, the estimated investment demand will fall by 6?% of its mean. Furthermore, it emerges that sales uncertainty and cost uncertainty are of equal importance for investment: both our indicators contribute about 3 percentage points to the total reduction of investment.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2000,05.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4141

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Related research
Keywords: Investition; Unsicherheit; Panelökonometrie; Investment; Uncertainty; Panel Estimation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity
L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior

References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "On the German Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Interest Rate and Credit Channels for Investment Spending," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christopher F. Baum & Dorothea Schäfer & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "The Effects of Industry-Level Uncertainty on Cash Holdings: The Case of Germany," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 637, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Toole, Andrew A., 2006. "Business R&D and the Interplay of R&D Subsidies and Market Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-55, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2005. "Uncertainty Determinants of Corporate Liquidity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 634, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jan Hendrik Fisch, 2008. "Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries – The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI," Diskussionsreihe "Global Business Management" 2, University of Augsburg, competence center for global business management. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dirk Czarnitzki & Andrew Toole, 2007. "Business R&D and the Interplay of R&D Subsidies and Product Market Uncertainty," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 169-181, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jochem, Axel, 2008. "International financial competitiveness and incentives to foreign direct investment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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