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Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms

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  • Bontempi, Maria Elena
  • Golinelli, Roberto
  • Parigi, Giuseppe

Abstract

Theoretically, the effect on investment of uncertainty over the demand for a firm's product is unclear because of the influence of several factors, such as the production technology and the amount of competition in the product market. It has not been possible, until now, to investigate more closely the interplay of different factors in the time dimension because the empirical research has been based on cross-section analysis. This omission makes biased estimates of the investment-uncertainty relationship likely. The aim of this paper is to extend the findings of the empirical literature using a panel of Italian firms in the period 1996-2004, covering a complete business cycle. The availability of panel survey data on companies' investment plans, expected future sales and demand uncertainty allows us to account for unobservable individual differences between firms, macroeconomic shocks and the evolution of the investment-uncertainty relationship. A key finding of our paper concerns the role of the competition encountered by Italian firms in 1996-2004. The gradual loss of market power over time of Italian manufacturing firms, along with the increasing flexibility of labour input has weakened the negative effect of uncertainty on investment decisions. We show that, in repeated cross-section estimates, the omission of firm-specific effects together with the dynamic interplay described above, would have lead to misleading conclusions about the relevance of demand uncertainty in explaining investment decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 218-238

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:218-238

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Keywords: Planned investments Demand uncertainty Survey data Panel estimation;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2011. "Credit availability and investment in Italy: lessons from the "Great Recession"," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 793, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
  3. Antonio Accetturo & Matteo Bugamelli & Andrea Lamorgese, 2012. "Welcome to the machine: firms' reaction to low-skilled immigration," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 846, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2013. "What Type of Policy Uncertainty Matters for Business?," Discussion papers 13076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  5. Recalde, Marina, 2011. "Energy policy and energy market performance: The Argentinean case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3860-3868, June.
  6. Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2012. "Investment under uncertainty: The nature of demand shocks and the expected profitability of capital," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 154-156.
  7. Gaiotti, Eugenio, 2013. "Credit availability and investment: Lessons from the “great recession”," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 212-227.
  8. Giorgio Fazio & Davide Piacentino, 2009. "A spatial multilevel analysis of Italian SMEs Productivity," Working Papers 2009_31, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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