Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution
AbstractThe authors study the effects of industrywide and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. They determine entry decisions and the resulting industry equilibrium and its characteristics, emphasizing effects of different sources of uncertainty. The authors stress how irreversibility affects the equilibrium distribution of prices, which in turn affects entry. Finally, they use four-digit U.S. manufacturing data to measure the extent of uncertainty and gauge its importance for investment. The authors find that a doubling of industrywide uncertainty raises the required rate of return on new capital by about 20 percent. Copyright 1996 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 37 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
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Web page: http://www.econ.upenn.edu/ier
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Other versions of this item:
- Caballero, Ricardo J. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution," Working papers 3460-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Robert S. Pindyck, 1992. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," NBER Working Papers 4160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988.
"Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
- Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
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3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Dixit, A., 1988.
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91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987.
"Time to build, option value, and investment decisions,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
- Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985. "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994.
"Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment,"
Review of Economic Studies,
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- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983.
"Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:fth:coluec:432 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
- Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997.
NBER Working Papers
6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leahy, J.V., 1991. "The Optimality of Myopic Behaviour in a Competitive Model of Entry and Exit," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1566, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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