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Irreversible Investment under Interest Rate Variability: Some Generalizations

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  • Alvarez, Luis H.R.
  • Koskela, Erkki

Abstract

We study the impact of interest rate and revenue variability on the decision to carry out irreversible investment. We provide a mathematical characterization of the two-dimensional optimal stopping problem and show that interest rate variability has a decelerating or accelerating impact on investment depending on whether the current interest rate is below or above the long-run steady state. Allowing for interest rate volatility decelerates investment by raising both the required exercise premium of the investment opportunity and the value of waiting. Finally, increased revenue volatility is shown to strengthen the negative impact of interest rate volatility and vice versa.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy in its series Discussion Papers with number 841.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:841

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References

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  1. Pindyck, Robert, 1989. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 294, The World Bank.
  2. Yaozhong Hu & Bernt Øksendal, 1998. "Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 295-310.
  3. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April.
  4. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June.
  8. Anders ûksendal, 2000. "Irreversible investment problems," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 223-250.
  9. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  11. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
  12. Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2001. "Wicksellian Theory of Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability," CESifo Working Paper Series 606, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Merton, Robert C, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 375-93, July.
  14. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  15. Ioannis Karatzas & Fridrik M. Baldursson, 1996. "Irreversible investment and industry equilibrium (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 69-89.
  16. Nickell, Stephen J, 1974. "On the Role of Expectations in the Pure Theory of Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, January.
  17. Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April.
  18. Nickell, Stephen J, 1974. "On Expectations, Government Policy and the Rate of Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(163), pages 241-55, August.
  19. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
  20. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
  21. Baldwin, Carliss Y, 1982. " Optimal Sequential Investment When Capital Is Not Readily Reversible," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 763-82, June.
  22. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1998. "Irreversible investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-37, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dias, José Carlos & Shackleton, Mark B., 2011. "Hysteresis effects under CIR interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 594-600, June.
  2. Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2001. "Wicksellian Theory of Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability," CESifo Working Paper Series 606, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Ángel León & Julio Carmona, 2007. "Investment Option Under Cir Interest Rates," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-24, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  4. Luis Alvarez, 2010. "Irreversible capital accumulation under interest rate uncertainty," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 249-271, October.
  5. Luis H.R. Alvarez E., 2006. "Irreversible Investment, Incremental Capital Accumulation, and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 4, Aboa Centre for Economics.

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