This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Economic instability and aggregate investment

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Pindyck, Robert S.
Solimano, Andres

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Recent literature suggests that because investment expenditures are irreversible and can be delayed, they may be highly sensitive to uncertainty. The authors briefly summarize the theory, stressing its empirical implications. Then, using cross-section and time-series data for a set of developing and industrial countries, they explore the empirical relevance of irreversibility and uncertainty to aggregate investment. They find that: (a) the volatility of the marginal profitability of capital (a summary measure of uncertainty) affects investment as the theory suggests, but the effect is moderate, and greatest for developing countries; (b)this volatility has little correlation with indices of political instability used in recent studies of growth; (c) inflation is highly correlated with this volatility and is a robust determinant of investment and the marginal profitability of capital. The volatility of the real exchange rate also has an independent contribution in explaining investment; and (d) the relationship between inflation and investment is nonlinear, and different thresholds of inflation, where the relationship with investment becomes stronger, were detected for a group of high-inflation countries in Latin America and low-inflation economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1993/06/01/000009265_3961004211238/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1148.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 30 Jun 1993
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1148

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Email:
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).

Related research
Keywords: Economic Theory&Research Environmental Economics&Policies International Terrorism&Counterterrorism Banks&Banking Reform ICT Policy and Strategies

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "Irreversible Investment with Price Ceilings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 541-57, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fields, Gary S, 1989. "Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 167-85, July.
  4. Inotai, Andras, 1991. "Regional integration among developing countries, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 643, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "A Fallacy of Composition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1279-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Baldwin, R E & Murray, Tracy, 1977. "MFN Tariff Reductions and Developing Country Trade Benefits under the GSP," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 87(345), pages 30-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-55, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  13. Dixit, Avinash, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pfeffermann, G.P. & Madarassy, A., 1992. "Trend in Private Investment in Developing Countries," Papers 14, World Bank - International Finance Corporation.
  16. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1990. "Policies to Move from Stabilization to Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Pfeffermann, G.P. & Madarassy, A., 1992. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries," Papers 16, World Bank - International Finance Corporation.
  19. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Corbo, Vittorio & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "Chile's experience with stabilization, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 579, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution," Working papers 3460-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Solimano, Andres, 1992. "Understanding the investment cycle in adjustment programs : evidence from reforming economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 912, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  29. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can import bibliographic info in various formats into you bibliographic tool, or just into your word processor. See under "publisher info" on each abstract page.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.