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Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics

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Author Info
Nick Bloom
Stephen Bond
John Van Reenen

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Abstract

This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impacteffect of demand shocks on investment. Uncertainty increases real option values makingfirms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed both numerically for amodel with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation overinvestment decisions and time, and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms.These cautionary effects of uncertainty are large - going from the lower quartile to the upperquartile of the uncertainty distribution typically halves the first year investment response todemand shocks. This implies the responsiveness of firms to any given policy stimulus may bemuch lower in periods of high uncertainty, such as after major shocks like OPEC I and 9/11.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0739.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0739

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Related research
Keywords: Investment uncertainty real options panel data

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. Nicholas Bloom, 2000. "The dynamic effects of real options and irreversibility on investment and labour demand," IFS Working Papers W00/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 2003. "Financial Frictions and Investment: Requiem in Q," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 710-728, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 5363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Vlieghe, Gertjan & Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed, 2003. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 212, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
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  16. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Joanne M. Doyle & Toni M. Whited, 2001. "Fixed Costs Of Adjustment, Coordination, And Industry Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 628-637, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers 07, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  21. Nick Bloom, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  22. Steve Bond & Dietmar Harhoff & John Van Reenen, 1999. "Investment, R&D and financial constraints in Britain and Germany," IFS Working Papers W99/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2000. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," NBER Working Papers 7925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Bloom, Nicholas & Bond, Stephen Roy & Van Reenen, John, 2003. "Uncertainty and Company Investment Dynamics: Empirical Evidence for UK Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nick Bloom, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Toole, Andrew A., 2008. "The R&D Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: Do Competition and Firm Size Matter?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-013, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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