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Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach

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Author Info
Ricardo J. Caballero
Eduardo M. R. A. Engel

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Abstract

In this paper, the authors derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S, s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of normal times is, occasionally, more than offset by the brisk response to large accumulated shocks. Using within and out-of-sample criteria, the authors find that the model performs substantially better than the standard linear models of investment for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment data.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 67 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 783-826
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:67:y:1999:i:4:p:783-826

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "The Determinants of Investment: Another Look," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 71-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 443-520. [Downloadable!]
  4. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1993. "Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 351-84, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bertola, G. & Caballero, R.J., 1990. "Kinked Adjustment Costs And Aggregate Dynamics," Discussion Papers 1990_20, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
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