Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ulf von Kalckreuth

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of sales uncertainty on firms' investment outlays using the database of the Deutsche Bundesbank's corporate balance sheet statistics. The sample used for estimation is a panel of 4'234 west German manufacturing firms with 33'217 observations, covering the years 1987-1997. In 1996, these firms accounted for 49.3% of the total turnover of German incorporated manufacturers. As uncertainty indicators, we construct firm-specific, time varying volatility measures. Using Within estimators and GMM techniques, we find a moderately strong and consistently negative effect of uncertainty on investment. If the uncertainty indicator is increased by one standard deviation, the predicted investment demand will fall by about 3.7 % of its mean.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sjes.ch/papers/2003-II-3.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 139 (2003)
Issue (Month): II (June)
Pages: 173-206

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2003-ii-3

Contact details of provider:
Postal: c/o SNB/BNS, Börsenstrasse 15, PO Box 2800, CH-8022 Zürich
Phone: +41 (0)44 631 32 34
Fax: +41 (0)44 631 39 01
Email:
Web page: http://www.sjes.ch
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Investment; Uncertainty; Panel Estimation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2001. "Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 429, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
  4. Werner, Thomas, 2000. "Die Wirkung von Wechselkursvolatilitäten auf das Investitionsverhalten," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 37712, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  5. Caselli, P. & Pagano, P. & Schivardi, F., 2000. "Investment and Growth in Europe and in the United States in the Nineties," Papers 372, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  6. Bronwyn H. Hall, Jacques Mairesse and Benoit Mulkay., 1998. "Firm Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," Economics Working Papers 98-261, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
  9. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  10. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  11. Ciaran Driver & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2005. "Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0405, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  12. Peeters, Marga, 1997. "Does demand and price uncertainty affect Belgian and Spanish corporate investment?," MPRA Paper 23604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S. & Breitung, Jörg, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
  15. Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2002. "The impact of uncertainty on investment plans," Working Paper Research 24, National Bank of Belgium.
  16. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
  17. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Tiomo, André, 2001. "Investment, the cost of capital, and monetary policy in the nineties in France: a panel data investigation," Working Paper Series 0106, European Central Bank.
  18. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Generale, Andrea & Hernando, Ignacio & Von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Vermeulen, Philip, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0112, European Central Bank.
  19. Lensink, R. & Sterken, Elmer, 1999. "Capital market imperfections, uncertainty and corporate investment in the Czech Republic," Research Report 99E51, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  20. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-74, August.
  21. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1994. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," NBER Working Papers 4887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Robert Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Further Evidence on the Relationship between Firm Investment and Financial Status," Emory Economics 0302, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  23. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2001. "Monetary transmission in Germany: New Perspectives on Financial Constraints and Investment Spending," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  24. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2008. "The Irreversibility Premium," CESifo Working Paper Series 2265, CESifo Group Munich.
  25. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  26. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 581-93, October.
  27. Hansen, Bruce E & West, Kenneth D, 2002. "Generalized Method of Moments and Macroeconomics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 460-69, October.
  28. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2000. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  29. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April.
  30. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  31. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-81, June.
  32. Bo, Hong, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Firm Investment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 1-14, March.
  33. Stephen Bond & Julie Ann Elston & Jacques Mairesse & Beno�t Mulkay, 2003. "Financial Factors and Investment in Belgium, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom: A Comparison Using Company Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 153-165, February.
  34. Hjalmar Boehm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Discovering the Link Between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0112, Econometric Society.
  35. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  36. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  37. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  38. Sterken, Elmer & Lensink, Robert & Bo, Hong, 2001. "Investment, cash flow, and uncertainty: evidence for the Netherlands," CCSO Working Papers 200114, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  39. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  40. Minton, Bernadette A. & Schrand, Catherine, 1999. "The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 423-460, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2003-ii-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Steiner).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.