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Discovering the Link Between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany

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Author Info
Hjalmar Boehm (Universitaet Hamburg)
Michael Funke (Universitaet Hamburg)
Nikolaus A. Siegfried (Universitaet Hamburg)

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Abstract

We analyse empirically the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of a sample of quoted German firms. The uncertainty measures are constructed by employing two procedures: the conventional formula of standard deviation, and the GARCH methodology. We find that uncertainty exerts a significantly negative effect on investment, i.e. uncertainty slows down capital accumulation. We also find that this negative relationship is closely related to the degree of market power of the firm.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 0112.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:0112

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Huizinga, John, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 521-49, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, . "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  7. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eberly, Janice C., 1997. "International evidence on investment and fundamentals," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1055-1078, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ziliak, James P, 1997. "Efficient Estimation with Panel Data When Instruments Are Predetermined: An Empirical Comparison of Moment-Condition Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 419-31, October.
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  13. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ruth A. Judson & Ann L. Owen, 1997. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a practical guide for macroeconomists," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1997. "An exact solution for the investment and value of a firm facing uncertainty, adjustment costs, and irreversibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 831-852, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Andrew B. Abel & Janice B. Eberly, . "The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 21-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  22. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Zeira, Joseph, 1990. "Cost uncertainty and the rate of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-63, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Baltagi, Badi H. & Boozer, Michael A., 1997. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 747-754, October. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Investment in Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20009, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Microeconometric Evidence for a German Credit Channel," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20002, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Silke Hüttel & Oliver Mußhoff & Martin Odening & Nataliya Zinych, 2008. "Estimating Investment Equations in Imperfect Capital Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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