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An Exact Soultion for the Investment and Market Value of a Firm Facing Uncertainty, Adjustment Costs, and Irreversibility

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Author Info
Andrew B. Abel
Janice C. Eberly

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Abstract

This paper derives closed-form solutions for the investment and market value, under uncertainty, of competitive firms with constant returns to scale production and convex costs of adjustment. Solutions are derived for the case of irreversible investment as well as for reversible investment. Optimal investment is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow value of capital. The conditions of optimality imply that q cannot contain a bubble; thus, optimal investment depends only on fundamentals. However, the value of the firm may contain a bubble that does not affect investment behavior. Relative to the case of reversible investment, the introduction of irreversibility does not affect q, but it reduces the fundamental market value of the firm.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4412.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Publication status: published as Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 21 (1997): 831-852.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4412

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E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "Irreversible Investment with Price Ceilings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 541-57, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mussa, Michael L, 1977. "External and Internal Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Aggregate and Firm Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(174), pages 163-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "A Stochastic Model of Investment, Marginal q and the Market Value of the Firm," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 305-22, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  8. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, . "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  10. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1998. "Irreversible investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Treadway, Arthur B, 1969. "On Rational Entrepreneurial Behaviour and the Demand for Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(106), pages 227-39, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alaa El-Shazly, 2004. "Investment under uncertainty in Egypt: a real-options approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 139-148, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Junning Cai, 2003. "Fundamental Paper Wealth and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0309001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Richard W. Kopcke, 1995. "Tobin's q, economic rents, and the optimal stock of capital," Working Papers 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 5363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Junning Cai, 2003. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Some Notes," Macroeconomics 0305006, EconWPA, revised 13 May 2003. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hjalmar Boehm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Discovering the Link Between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0112, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Junning Cai, 2004. "Baby Boom, Asset Market Meltdown and Liquidity Trap," Macroeconomics 0401002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2000. "Investigating the Link between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20008, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke, 1999. "The Uncertainty-Investment Relationship," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19903, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Affuso, Luisa & Newbery, David M G, 2000. "Investment, Reprocurement and Franchise Contract Length in the British Railway Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 2619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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